Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is a major component of the global overturning circulation, originating around the Antarctic continental margin. In recent decades AABW has both warmed and freshened, but there is also evidence of large interannual variability. The causes of this underlying variability are not yet fully understood, in part due to a lack of ocean and air-sea-ice flux measurements in the region. Here, we simulate the formation and export of AABW from 1958 to 2018 using a global, eddying ocean–sea-ice model in which the four AABW formation regions and transports agree reasonably well with observations. The simulated formation and export of AABW exhibits strong interannual variability which is not correlated between the different formation regions. Reservoirs of very dense waters at depth in the Weddell and Ross Seas following 1-2 years of strong surface water mass transformation can lead to higher AABW export for up to a decade. In Prydz Bay and at the Adélie Coast in contrast, dense water reservoirs do not persist beyond 1 year which we attribute to the narrower shelf extent in the East Antarctic AABW formation regions. The main factor controlling years of high AABW formation are weaker easterly winds, which reduce sea ice import into the AABW formation region, leaving increased areas of open water primed for air-sea buoyancy loss and convective overturning. Our study highlights the variability of simulated AABW formation in all four formation regions, with potential implications for interpreting trends in observational data using only limited duration and coverage.

Recent ice loss on the western Antarctic Peninsula has been driven by warming ocean waters on the continental shelf. However, due to the short observational record, our understanding of the dynamics and variability in this region remains poor. High-resolution ocean model simulations show that the temperature variability along the western Antarctic Peninsula is controlled by the rate of dense water formation in the Weddell Sea. Passive tracer advection reveals connectivity between the Weddell Sea and the coastline of the western Antarctic Peninsula and Bellingshausen Sea. During multi-year periods of weak Weddell dense water formation, dense overflow transport in the Weddell Sea decreases, while the transport of cold water around the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula strengthens, driving a temperature decrease of 0.4oC along the western Antarctic Peninsula. This mechanism implies that western Antarctic Peninsula coastal ocean temperature may cool in the future if Weddell Dense Shelf Water production slows down.

The Weddell Gyre’s variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is investigated using an ocean-sea ice model at three different horizontal resolutions. The model is evaluated against available observations to demonstrate that the highest resolution configuration (0.1$^{\circ}$ in the horizontal) best reproduces observed features of the region. The simulations suggest that the gyre is subject to large variability in its circulation that is not captured by summer-biased or short-term observations. The Weddell Gyre’s seasonal cycle consists of a summer minimum and a winter maximum and accounts for changes that are between one third and a half of its mean transport . On interannual time scales we find that the gyre’s strength is correlated with the local Antarctic easterlies and that extreme events of gyre circulation are associated with changes in sea ice concentration and the characteristics of warm inflow at the eastern boundary.

Recent work has suggested that tropical Pacific decadal variability and external forcings have had a comparable influence on the observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime eddy-driven jet over the satellite era. Here we contrast the zonally asymmetric response of the SH eddy-driven jet to tropical Pacific decadal variability using ensembles of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) in a pacemaker framework, where sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific are nudged to observations. In both coupled and uncoupled experiments, the observed South Pacific jet intensification is found in all seasons, indicating the tropical Pacific SST cooling anomaly impacts the South Pacific jet mainly via direct atmospheric processes. By contrast, only the coupled pacemaker reproduces the South Atlantic-Indian jet poleward shift in the summertime, suggesting that the air-sea coupling is essential in driving the teleconnections between tropical Pacific SSTA and South Atlantic-Indian jet variations.

The response of the ventilation of mode and intermediate waters to abrupt changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is examined by analyzing the ideal age in a global ocean-sea ice model. The age response is shown to differ between the central Pacific Ocean and other basins. In the central Pacific there are large decreases in the age of subtropical mode and intermediate waters associated with a more positive SAM, contrasting only small age changes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, except near where intermediate water density surfaces outcrop. These interbasin differences hold for simulations at different horizontal resolutions, and can be explained by the combination of zonal variations in wind stress changes associated with the SAM, and differences in the age response to an increase or shift in the wind stress. These results suggest that the carbon and heat uptake associated with the SAM will likely vary between ocean basins.

Numerical mixing, defined here as the physically spurious diffusion of tracers due to the numerical discretization of advection, is known to contribute to biases in ocean circulation models. However, quantifying numerical mixing is non-trivial, with most studies utilizing specifically targeted experiments in idealized settings. Here, we present a precise, online water-mass transformation-based method for quantifying numerical mixing that can be applied to any conserved variable in global general circulation models. Furthermore, the method can be applied within individual fluid columns to provide a spatially-resolved metric. We apply the method to a suite of global ocean-sea ice model simulations with differing grid spacings and sub-grid scale parameterizations. In all configurations numerical mixing drives across-isotherm heat transport of comparable magnitude to that associated with explicitly-parameterized mixing. Numerical mixing is prominent at warm temperatures in the tropical thermocline, where it is sensitive to the vertical diffusivity and resolution. At colder temperatures, numerical mixing is sensitive to the presence of explicit neutral diffusion, suggesting that much of the numerical mixing in these regions acts as a proxy for neutral diffusion when it is explicitly absent. Comparison of equivalent (with respect to vertical resolution and explicit mixing parameters) $1/4^\circ$ and $1/10^\circ$ horizontal resolution configurations shows only a modest enhancement in numerical mixing at $1/4^\circ$. Our results provide a detailed view of numerical mixing in ocean models and pave the way for future improvements in numerical methods.

The positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will impact the Southern Ocean’s role in Earth’s climate, however the details of the Southern Ocean’s response remain uncertain. We introduce a methodology to examine the influence of SAM on the Southern Ocean, and apply this method to a global ocean–sea-ice model run at three resolutions (1$^{\circ}$, 1/4$^{\circ}$ and 1/10$^{\circ}$). Our methodology drives perturbation simulations with realistic atmospheric forcing of extreme SAM conditions. The thermal response agrees with previous studies; positive SAM perturbations warm the upper ocean north of the windspeed maximum and cool it to the south, with the opposite response for negative SAM. The overturning circulation exhibits a rapid response that increases/decreases for positive/negative SAM perturbations and is insensitive to model resolution. The longer term adjustment of the overturning circulation, however, depends on the representation of eddies, and is faster at higher resolutions.

We introduce a novel wind-derived metric to quantify variability in the Southern Ocean overturning circulation. This metric, which we call the Ekman streamfunction, integrates the Ekman pumping vertical velocity zonally and northwards from the Antarctic coastline to a given latitude. To evaluate the relationship between the Ekman streamfunction and Southern Ocean overturning circulation, we use a global 0.1 ocean–sea-ice model driven with interannual forcing (1958-2018). Throughout much of the Southern Ocean, strong correlations (r>0.9) exist between the Ekman streamfunction and the Southern Ocean overturning circulation on monthly and annual timescales. A regression analysis identifies regions where Ekman streamfunction variability coincides with >4Sv changes in the overturning; one such location is where the wind stress curl changes sign and the Ekman pumping velocity is highly variable. This study offers a new approach to infer recent changes in the Southern Ocean overturning circulation from existing datasets of wind stress.

The Southern Ocean (SO) provides the largest oceanic sink of carbon. Observational datasets highlight decadal-scale changes in SO CO2 uptake, but the processes leading to this decadal-scale variability remain debated. Here, using an eddy-permitting ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model, we explore the impact of changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies on contemporary (i.e. total), anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes using idealised sensitivity experiments as well as an interannually varying forced (IAF) experiment covering the years 1948 to 2007. We find that a strengthening of the SH westerlies reduces the contemporary CO2 uptake by leading to a high southern latitude natural CO2 outgassing. The enhanced SO upwelling and associated increase in Antarctic Bottom Water decrease the carbon content at depth in the SO, and increase the transport of carbon-rich waters to the surface. A poleward shift of the westerlies particularly enhances the CO2 outgassing south of 60S, while inducing an asymmetrical DIC response between high and mid southern latitudes. Changes in the SH westerlies in the 20th century in the IAF experiment lead to decadal-scale variability in both natural and contemporary CO2 fluxes. The ~10% strengthening of the SH westerlies since the 1980s led to a 0.016 GtC/yr^2 decrease in natural CO2 uptake, while the anthropogenic CO2 uptake increased at a similar rate, thus leading to a stagnation of the total SO CO2 uptake. The projected poleward strengthening of the SH westerlies over the coming century will thus reduce the capability of the SO to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2.

The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a distinctive feature of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude atmospheric circulation, regulating regional Antarctic climate, meridional heat transport, ocean circulation, and sea-ice in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. Most previous research on the ASL has focused on its variability with only a few studies attempting to understand why the climatological ASL exists. These studies have proposed different hypotheses to explain the presence of ASL, however, a clear understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the generation of the ASL remains uncertain. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the ASL is a consequence of the interaction between Antarctic topography and the westerly wind jet, with negligible influence from low-latitude teleconnections. A non-rotating fluid flow simulation further suggests that the ASL can be explained by flow separation resulting from the interaction of westerly winds with the topography of Antarctica.

Subtropical Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) are often associated with hotspots of global warming, with certain WBC extension regions warming 3-4 times faster than the global mean. In the Southern Hemisphere strong warming over the WBC extensions has been observed over the last few decades, with enhanced warming projected into the future. This amplified warming has primarily been linked to poleward intensification of the mid-latitude westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. Changes in these winds are often thought of as being zonally symmetric, however, recent studies show that they contain strong zonal asymmetries in certain ocean basins. The importance of these zonal asymmetries for the Southern Ocean has not yet been investigated. In this study, we use an ocean-sea-ice model forced by prescribed atmospheric fields to quantify the contribution of projected zonally asymmetric atmospheric changes in generating future ocean warming and circulation changes in the subtropical WBC regions of the Southern Hemisphere. We find that the projected zonally asymmetric component of atmospheric change can explain more than 30% (>2°C) of the SST warming found in the Tasman Sea and southern Australia region and a sizeable fraction of warming in the Agulhas Current region. These changes in SST in both the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins are found to be primarily driven by changes in the large-scale subtropical ocean gyres, which in turn can largely be explained by changes in the surface wind stress patterns.

Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean-ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. Few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean’s response to climate change. In this work we examine historical changes in the near-Antarctic surface winds using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and reanalysis data, and quantify projected changes to the end of the 21st Century. These changes include a significant reduction in both the easterly and meridional wind components, which under the high emission scenario amounts to 23% and 7% respectively, most of which occurs during the summer season. The projected weakening of surface winds are coherent with a trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole-to-coast meridional pressure gradient.