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Projected changes of surface winds over the Antarctic continental margin
  • Julia Neme,
  • Matthew H. England,
  • Andrew McC. Hogg
Julia Neme
UNSW Australia

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Matthew H. England
University of New South Wales
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Andrew McC. Hogg
Australian National University
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Abstract

Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean-ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. Few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean’s response to climate change. In this work we examine historical changes in the near-Antarctic surface winds using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and reanalysis data, and quantify projected changes to the end of the 21st Century. These changes include a significant reduction in both the easterly and meridional wind components, which under the high emission scenario amounts to 23% and 7% respectively, most of which occurs during the summer season. The projected weakening of surface winds are coherent with a trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole-to-coast meridional pressure gradient.