Rapid plate motion, alongside pronounced variations in age and thickness of the Australian continental lithosphere, make it an excellent location to assess the relationship between seismic anisotropy and lithosphere-asthenosphere dynamics. In this study, SKS and PKS shear-wave splitting is conducted for 176 stations covering the transition from the South Australian Craton to eastern Phanerozoic Australia. Comparisons are made with models of lithospheric thickness as well as numerical simulations of mantle flow. Splitting results show uniform ENE-WSW aligned fast directions over the Gawler Craton and broader South Australian Craton, similar to the orientation of crustal structures generated during an episode of NW-SE directed compression and volcanism ~1.6 billion years ago. We propose that heat from volcanism weakened the lithosphere, aiding widespread lithospheric deformation, which has since been preserved in the form of frozen-in anisotropy. Conversely, over eastern Phanerozoic Australia, fast directions show strong alignment with the NNE absolute plate motion. Overall, our results suggest that when the lithosphere is thin (<125 km), lithospheric contributions are minimal and contributions from asthenospheric anisotropy dominate, reflecting shear of the underlying mantle by Australia’s rapid plate motion above. Further insights from geodynamical simulations of the regional mantle flow-field, which incorporate Australian and adjacent upper mantle structure, predict that asthenospheric material would be drawn in from the south and east towards the fast-moving continental keel. Such a mechanism, alongside interactions between the flow field and lithospheric structure, provides a plausible explanation for smaller-scale anomalous splitting patterns beneath eastern Australia that do not align with plate motion.

The modern state of the mantle and its evolution on geological timescales is of widespread importance for the Earth sciences. For instance, it is generally agreed that mantle flow is manifest in topographic and drainage network evolution, glacio-eustasy and in the distribution of sediments. There now exists a variety of theoretical approaches to predict histories of mantle convection and its impact on surface deflections. A general goal is to make use of observed deflections to identify Earth-like simulations and constrain the history of mantle convection. Several important insights into roles of radial and non-radial viscosity variations, gravitation, and the importance of shallow structure already exist. Here we seek to bring those insights into a single framework to elucidate the relative importance of popular modelling choices on predicted instantaneous vertical surface deflections. We start by comparing results from numeric and analytic approaches to solving the equations of motion that are ostensibly parameterised to be as-similar-as-possible. Resultant deflections can vary by $\sim$10\%, increasing to $\sim25$\% when viscosity is temperature-dependent. Including self-gravitation and gravitational potential of the deflected surface are relatively small sources of discrepancy. However, spherical harmonic correlations between model predictions decrease dramatically with the excision of shallow structure to increasing depths, and when radial viscosity structure is modified. The results emphasise sensitivity of instantaneous surface deflections to density and viscosity anomalies in the upper mantle. They reinforce the view that a detailed understanding of lithospheric structure is crucial for relating mantle convective history to observations of vertical motions at Earth’s surface.

The modern state of the mantle and its evolution over geological timescales is of widespread importance for the Earth sciences. For instance, it is generally agreed that mantle flow is manifest in topographic and drainage network evolution, glacio-eustasy, volcanism, and in the distribution of sediments. An obvious way to test theoretical understanding of mantle convection is to compare model predictions with independent observations. We take a step towards doing so by exploring sensitivities of theoretical surface deflections generated from a systematic exploration of global mantle convection simulations. Sources of uncertainty, model parameters that are crucial for predicting deflections, and those that are less so, are identified. We start by quantifying similarities and discrepancies between deflections generated using numerical and analytical methods that are ostensibly parameterised to be as-similar-as-possible. Numerical approaches have the advantage of high spatial resolution, and can capture effects of lateral viscosity variations. However, treatment of gravity is often simplified due to computational limitations. Analytic solutions, which leverage propagator matrices, are computationally cheap, easy to replicate, and can employ radial gravitation. However, spherical harmonic expansions used to generate solutions can result in coarser resolution, and the methodology cannot account for lateral viscosity variations. We quantify the impact of these factors for predicting surface deflections. We also examine contributions from radial gravity variations, perturbed gravitational potential, excised upper mantle, and temperature-dependent viscosity, to predicted surface deflections. Finally, we quantify effective contributions from the mantle to surface deflections. The results emphasise the sensitivity of surface deflections to the upper mantle.