Matthew Iain Arran

and 5 more

Geophysical granular flows exert basal forces that generate seismic signals, which can be used to better monitor and model these severe natural hazards. A number of empirical relations and existing models link these signals’ high-frequency components to a variety of flow properties, many of which are inaccessible by other analyses. However, the range of validity of the empirical relations remains unclear and the models lack validation, owing to the difficulty of adequately controlling and instrumenting field-scale flows. Here, we present laboratory experiments investigating the normal forces exerted on a basal plate by dense and partially dense flows of spherical glass particles. We measured the power spectra of these forces and inferred predictions for these power spectra from the models for debris flows’ seismic signals proposed by Kean et al. (2015), Lai et al. (2018), and Farin, Tsai, et al. (2019), using Hertz theory to extend Farin, Tsai, et al. (2019)’s models to higher frequencies. Comparison of our bservations to these predictions, and to predictions derived from Bachelet (2018) and Bachelet et al. (2021)’s model for granular flows’ seismic signals, shows those of Farin, Tsai, et al. (2019)’s ‘thin-flow’ model to be the most accurate, so we examine explanations for this accuracy and discuss its implications for geophysical flows’ seismic signals. We also consider the normalisation, by the mean force exerted by each flow, of the force’s mean squared fluctuations, showing that this ratio varies by four orders of magnitude over our experiments, but is determined by the bulk inertial number of the flow.

Alessandro Tadini

and 8 more

Tephra fallout hazard assessment is commonly undertaken with the development of probabilistic maps that rely on numerical models. Among the steps for map production, the definition of input parameters of the model (including atmospheric conditions), the physical approximations of the numerical simulations, and the probabilities of occurrence of different eruption types in specific time frames are among the most critical sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a tephra fallout hazard assessment study for two volcanoes (Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha) in Ecuador. We utilize the coupled PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT models, and we develop a procedure for uncertainty quantification where: i) we quantify the uncertainty on eruptive source parameters and eruption type occurrence through expert elicitation; ii) we implement a new procedure for correlations between the different parameters, and iii) we quantify the uncertainty of the numerical model by testing it with past eruptions and by deriving coefficients of mean model overestimation/underestimation. Probability maps of exceedance, given a deposit thickness threshold, and thickness maps, given a probability of exceedence, are produced for eruption of sub-Plinian and Plinian types, which are then merged into single maps concerning the next eruption. These are described according to the uncertainty distribution of eruption type occurrence probabilities, in terms of their 5th percentile, mean and 95th percentile values. We finally present hazard curves describing exceeding probabilities in 10 sensitive sites within the city of Quito. Additional information includes the areal extent and the people potentially affected by different isolines of tephra accumulation.