Emma J.D. Boland

and 4 more

The causes of decadal variations in global warming are poorly understood, however it is widely understood that variations in ocean heat content are linked with variations in surface warming. To investigate the forced response of ocean heat content (OHC) to anthropogenic aerosols (AA), we use an ensemble of historical simulations, which were carried out using a range of anthropogenic aerosol forcing magnitudes in a CMIP6-era global circulation model. We find that the centennial scale linear trends in historical ocean heat content are significantly sensitive to AA forcing magnitude ($-3.0\pm0.1$ x10$^{5}$ (J m$^{-3}$ century$^{-1}$)/(W m$^{-2}$), R$^2$=0.99), but interannual to multi-decadal variability in global ocean heat content appear largely independent of AA forcing magnitude. Comparison with observations find consistencies in different depth ranges and at different time scales with all but the strongest aerosol forcing magnitude, at least partly due to limited observational accuracy. We find broad negative sensitivity of ocean heat content to increased aerosol forcing magnitude across much of the tropics and sub-tropics. The polar regions and North Atlantic show the strongest heat content trends, and also show the strongest dependence on aerosol forcing magnitude. However, the ocean heat content response to increasing aerosol forcing magnitude in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is either dominated by internal variability, or strongly state dependent, showing different behaviour in different time periods. Our results suggest the response to aerosols in these regions is a complex combination of influences from ocean transport, atmospheric forcings, and sea ice responses.

Jacqueline Boutin

and 27 more

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) is an increasingly-used Essential Ocean and Climate Variable. The SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP satellite missions all provide SSS measurements, with very different instrumental features leading to specific measurement characteristics. The Climate Change Initiative Salinity project (CCI+SSS) aims to produce a SSS Climate Data Record (CDR) that addresses well-established user needs based on those satellite measurements. To generate a homogeneous CDR, instrumental differences are carefully adjusted based on in-depth analysis of the measurements themselves, together with some limited use of independent reference data. An optimal interpolation in the time domain without temporal relaxation to reference data or spatial smoothing is applied. This allows preserving the original datasets variability. SSS CCI fields are well-suited for monitoring weekly to interannual signals, at spatial scales ranging from 50 km to the basin scale. They display large year-to-year seasonal variations over the 2010-2019 decade, sometimes by more than +/-0.4 over large regions. The robust standard deviation of the monthly CCI SSS minus in situ Argo salinities is 0.15 globally, while it is at least 0.20 with individual satellite SSS fields. r2 is 0.97, similar or better than with original datasets. The correlation with independent ship thermosalinographs SSS further highlights the CCI dataset excellent performance, especially near land areas. During the SMOS-Aquarius period, when the representativity uncertainties are the largest, r2 is 0.84 with CCI while it is 0.48 with the Aquarius original dataset. SSS CCI data are freely available and will be updated and extended as more satellite data become available.

Alex Megann

and 4 more

Recent studies, using data from the OSNAP observational campaign and from numerical ocean models, suggest that surface buoyancy losses over the Iceland Basin and the Irminger Sea may, in contradiction to the established consensus, be more significant than those over the Labrador Sea, and that these former regions are in fact the dominant sites for formation of upper North Atlantic Deep Water), with the Labrador Sea acting mainly as a region of further densification as the dense waters flow around the gyre. Here we present a set of hindcast integrations of a global 1/4° NEMO ocean configuration from 1958 until nearly the present day, forced with three standard surface forcing datasets. We use the surface-forced streamfunction, estimated from surface buoyancy fluxes, along with the overturning streamfunction, similarly defined in potential density space, to investigate the causal link between surface forcing and decadal variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A scalar metric based on the surface forced streamfunction, evaluated in critical density and latitude classes, and accumulated in time, is found to be a good predictor of changes in the overturning strength, and the surface heat loss from the Irminger Sea is confirmed to be the dominant mechanism for decadal AMOC variability. We use the streamfunctions to demonstrate that the watermasses in the simulations are transformed to higher densities as they propagate around the subpolar gyre from their formation locations in the north-east Atlantic and the Irminger Sea, consistent with the picture emerging from observations.

Dan Jones

and 3 more

The mid-to-high latitude North Atlantic features cold temperature anomalies on interannual timescales. For example, in 2015 a region of open ocean southwest of Greenland reached a record low temperature relative to the period 1880-2015. Such rapid drops in upper ocean heat content have been linked to impacts on the North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate (e.g. heat waves induced by changing atmospheric circulation patterns). Despite their potential importance for regional climate, the specific mechanisms that induce these interannual cold anomalies are still not well understood. In particular, the relative importance of changes in surface forcing compared with upwelling of deep ocean cold anomalies (i.e. those below 500 m) in establishing the 2015 cold anomaly is a topic of intense debate. Here we use an observationally-constrained ocean model in adjoint mode to calculate the sensitivities of upper ocean heat content to local and remote surface forcing. Adjoint methods allow us to quantify the relative contributions of wind stress and net heat flux in producing the 2015 cold anomaly. Wind stress contributes to the cold anomaly via both (1) strengthening surface latent and sensible heat losses and (2) inducing changes in ocean circulation. Net heat flux contributes to the cold anomaly by inducing heat loss in both local and upstream waters. We also use adjoint methods to calculate (1) the source waters that contributed to the cold anomaly and (2) regions that may have contributed to the cold anomaly by inducing changes in synoptic-scale ocean circulation. Furthermore, we examine the large-scale context by calculating the sensitivities of subpolar gyre heat content to surface forcing and the ocean state. Our results suggest that surface forcing, particularly the extreme heat loss event in the winter of 2013-2014, played a dominant role in producing the 2015 cold anomaly.