Convergent coastal-plain estuaries have been shortened by dam-like structures worldwide. We used 31 long-term water level stations and a semi-analytical tide model to investigate the influence of a dam and landward-funneling on tides and storm surge propagation in the greater Charleston Harbor region, South Carolina, where three rivers meet: the Ashley, Cooper, and Wando. Our analysis shows that the principle tidal harmonic (M2), storm surge, and long-period setup-setdown (~4–10 days) propagate as long waves with the greatest amplification and celerity observed in the M2 wave. All waves attenuate in landward regions, but, as they approach the dam on the Cooper River, a frequency dependent response in amplitude and phase progression occurs. Dam-induced amplification scales with wave frequency, causing the greatest amplification in M2 overtides. Model results show that funneling and the presence of a dam amplify tidal waves through partial and full reflection, respectively. The different phase progression of these reflected waves, however, can ultimately reduce the total wave amplification. We use a friction-convergence parameter space to demonstrate how amplification is largest for partial reflection, when funneling and wave periods are not extreme (often the case of dominant tides), and for full reflection, when funneling and/or wave periods are small. The analysis also shows that in the case of long period events (>day), such as storm surges, dams may attenuate the wave in funneling estuaries. However, dams may amplify the most intense storm surges (short, high) more than funneling with unexpected consequence that can greatly increase flood exposure.

Astronomical variations in tidal magnitude can strongly modulate the severity of coastal flooding on daily, monthly, and interannual timescales. Here, we present a new quasi-nonstationary skew surge joint probability method (qn-SSJPM) that estimates interannual fluctuations in flood hazard caused by the 18.6 and quasi 4.4-year modulations of tides. We demonstrate that qn-SSJPM-derived storm tide frequency estimates are more precise and stable compared with the standard practice of fitting an extreme value distribution to measured storm tides, which is often biased by the largest few events within the observational period. Applying the qn-SSJPM in the Gulf of Maine, we find significant tidal forcing of winter storm season flood hazard by the 18.6-year nodal cycle, whereas 4.4-year modulations and a secular trend in tides are small compared to interannual variation and long-term trends in sea-level. The nodal cycle forces decadal oscillations in the 1% annual chance storm tide at an average rate of ±13.5 mm/y in Eastport, ME; ±4.0 mm/y in Portland, ME; and ±5.9 mm/y in Boston, MA. Currently (in 2020), nodal forcing is counteracting the sea-level rise-induced increase in flood hazard; however, in 2025, the nodal cycle will reach a minimum and then begin to accelerate flood hazard increase as it moves toward its maximum phase over the subsequent decade. Along the world’s meso-to-macrotidal coastlines, it is therefore critical to consider both sea-level rise and tidal non-stationarity in planning for the transition to chronic flooding that will be driven by sea-level rise in many regions over the next century.

We demonstrate that long-term tidally-induced changes in extreme sea levels affect estimates of major flood hazard in a predictable way. Long-term variations in tides due to the nodal and perigean tidal cycles influence extreme sea levels at 234 global tide gauges out of a total of 344. Results show regions where the amplitudes of the modulations are particularly relevant in the 100-year return sea level; the eastern coast of China, the northwestern and northeastern coasts of Australia, the northeast coast of Pacific, and the eastern coast of Europe, reaching up to ~22 cm in western France. We identify locations that are currently in a positive phase of the modulation and therefore at a higher risk of flooding, as well as when (year) the next peak of the nodal/perigean modulations is expected to occur. The timing of the peak of the modulation is spatially coherent and influenced by the relative importance of each cycle (nodal or perigee) over the total amplitude. An evaluation of four locations suggests that the potentially flooded area in a 100-year event can vary up to ~45% (in Boston) as a result of the long-term tidal cycles; however, areal change is often smaller due to local topography and tidal characteristics (6-13%). We conclude that tidally-modulated changes in extreme sea levels can alter the potentially inundated area in a 100-year event and that the traditional, fixed 100-year floodplain is inadequate for describing coastal flood risk.

We investigate trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980-2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

Flow in rivers and the coastal ocean is controlled by the frictional force exerted on the water by riverbed or seabed roughness. The frictional force is typically characterized by a drag coefficient Cd, which is estimated from bulk measurements and often assumed constant. Here we demonstrate a relationship between bed roughness and water surface turbulence that can be used to make remote estimates of Cd. We observe that regions with higher bed roughness result in higher turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), which is transported upward by river boils to the water surface. We present a relationship between surface TKE and Cd, and validate this relationship by comparing remotely-sensed estimates of Cd to those from in situ measurements. Thus, our results provide an approach for estimating bottom roughness and Cd based entirely on remotely sensed data, including their spatial variability, which can improve modeling of river discharge and morphodynamics in data-poor regions.