Chen Zhang

and 2 more

We present {the} Arctic atmospheric river (AR) climatology based on twelve {sets of} labels derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses for 1980--2019. The ARs were identified and tracked in the 3-hourly reanalysis data with a multifactorial approach based on either atmospheric column-integrated water vapor ($IWV$) or integrated water vapor transport ($IVT$) exceeding one of the three climate thresholds (75th, 85th, and 95th percentiles). Time series analysis of the AR event counts from the AR labels showed overall upward trends from the mid-1990s to 2019. The 75th $IVT$- and $IWV$-based labels, as well as the 85th $IWV$-based labels, are likely more sensitive to Arctic surface warming, therefore, detected some broadening of AR-affected areas over time, while the rest of the labels did not. Spatial exploratory analysis of these labels revealed that the AR frequency of occurrence maxima shifted poleward from over-land in 1980--1999 to over the Arctic Ocean and its outlying Seas in 2000--2019. Regions across the Atlantic, the Arctic, to the Pacific Oceans trended higher AR occurrence, surface temperature, and column-integrated moisture. Meanwhile, ARs were increasingly responsible for the rising moisture transport into the Arctic. Even though the increase of Arctic AR occurrence was primarily associated with long-term Arctic surface warming and moistening, the effects of changing atmospheric circulation could stand out locally, such as on the Pacific side over the Chukchi Sea. The changing teleconnection patterns strongly modulated AR activities in time and space, with prominent anomalies in the Arctic-Pacific sector during the latest decade. Besides, the extreme events identified by the 95th-percentile labels displayed the most significant changes and were most influenced by the teleconnection patterns. The twelve Arctic AR labels and the detailed graphics in the atlas can help navigate the uncertainty of detecting and quantifying Arctic ARs and their associated effects in current and future studies.

Chen Zhang

and 2 more

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect surface hydrometeorology in the US West Coast and Midwest. We systematically sought optimal AR indices for expressing surface precipitation impacts within the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) framework. We adopted a multifactorial approach. Four factors—moisture fields, climatological thresholds, shape criteria, and temporal thresholds—collectively generated 81 West Coast AR indices and 81 Midwest indices from January 1980 to June 2017. Two moisture fields were extracted from the MERRA-2 data for ARTMIP: integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and integrated water vapor (IWV). Metrics for precipitation effects included two-way summary statistics relating the concurrence of AR and that of precipitation, per-event averaged precipitation rate, and per-event precipitation accumulation. We found that an optimal AR index for precipitation depends on the types of impact to be addressed, associated physical mechanisms in the affected regions, timing, and duration. In West Coast and Midwest, IWV-based AR indices identified the most abundant AR event time steps, most accurately associated AR to days with precipitation, and represented the presence of precipitation the best. With a lower climatological threshold, they detected the most accumulated precipitation with the longest event duration. Longer duration thresholds also led to higher accumulated precipitation, holding other factors constant. IWV-based indices are the overall choice for Midwest ARs under varying seasonal precipitation drivers. IVT-based indices suitably capture the accumulation of intense orographic precipitation on the West Coast. Indices combining IVT and IWV identify the fewest, shortest, but most intense AR precipitation episodes.