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Marine heatwaves confirm cloud response to warming in global climate models
  • Lauren Schmeisser,
  • Thomas P Ackerman,
  • Nicholas A Bond
Lauren Schmeisser
University of Washington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Thomas P Ackerman
University of Washington
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Nicholas A Bond
University of Washington
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Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are events of abnormally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems and coastal economies. The evolution of these events depends partially on the local atmospheric response, and how changes in clouds and surface heat fluxes in turn affect SSTs. Understanding the role of the atmosphere in MHWs is essential for modeling and forecasting these events. Here we use satellite data from 2001-2019 to identify MHWs and anomalous atmospheric variables- including radiative heat fluxes, turbulent heat fluxes, and cloud cover- associated with these events. We find robust patterns in SST-cloud and SST-heat flux relationships that show important geographical differences in atmosphere-ocean interactions during MHWs. Because of these regional differences, we don’t expect MHWs to evolve the same way in all regions. We also find that the cloud response observed during MHWs globally corresponds well with the cloud response to future warming, as identified in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) ensemble of global climate models. This suggests that MHWs can provide valuable insight to anomalous atmosphere-ocean interactions under future warming.