Rishabh Dutta

and 2 more

Large earthquakes are usually modeled with simple planar fault surfaces or a combination of several planar fault segments. However, in general, earthquakes occur on faults that are non-planar and exhibit significant geometrical variations in both the along-strike and down-dip directions at all spatial scales. Mapping of surface fault ruptures and high-resolution geodetic observations are increasingly revealing complex fault geometries near the surface and accurate locations of aftershocks often indicate geometrical complexities at depth. With better geodetic data and observations of fault ruptures, more details of complex fault geometries can be estimated resulting in more realistic fault models of large earthquakes. To address this topic, we here parametrize non-planar fault geometries with a set of polynomial parameters that allow for both along-strike and down-dip variations in the fault geometry. Our methodology uses Bayesian inference to estimate the non-planar fault parameters from geodetic data, yielding an ensemble of plausible models that characterize the uncertainties of the non-planar fault geometry and the fault slip. The method is demonstrated using synthetic tests considering checkerboard fault-slip patterns on non-planar fault surfaces with spatially-variable dip and strike angles both in the down-dip and in the along-strike directions. The results show that fault-slip estimations can be biased when a simple planar fault geometry is assumed in presence of significant non-planar geometrical variations. Our method can help to model earthquake fault sources in a more realistic way and may be extended to include multiple non-planar fault segments or other geometrical fault complexities.

Yunmeng Cao

and 2 more

Large-scale ground deformation in Iceland is dominated by extensional plate-boundary deformation, where the Mid-Atlantic Ridge crosses the island, and by uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment from thinning and retreat of glaciers. While this deformation is mostly steady over multiple years, it is modulated by smaller-scale transient deformation associated with e.g., earthquakes, volcanic unrest, and geothermal exploitation. Here we combine countrywide Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data (from six tracks) from 2015 to 2021 with continuous GPS observations to produce time-series of displacements across Iceland. The InSAR results were improved in a two-step tropospheric mitigation procedure, using (1) global atmospheric models to reduce long-wavelength and topography-correlated tropospheric signals, and (2) modeling of the stochastic properties of the residual troposphere. Our results significantly improve upon earlier country-wide InSAR results, which were based on InSAR stacking, as we use more data, better data weighting, and advanced InSAR corrections to produce time-series of ground displacements instead of just velocities. We fuse the three ascending and three descending track results to estimate maps of near-East and vertical velocities, which clearly show the large-scale extension and GIA deformation. Using a revised plate-spreading and glacial isostatic adjustment models, based on these new ground velocity maps, we remove the large-scale and steady deformation from the InSAR time-series and analyze the remaining transient deformations. Our results demonstrate the importance of (1) mitigating InSAR tropospheric signals over Iceland and of (2) solving for time-series of deformation, not just velocities, as multiple transient deformation processes are present.