Predicting the potential distribution of 12 threatened medicinal plants
on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), with a maximum entropy model
Abstract
Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species
distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change
will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this
study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area
of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)
under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios
(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically
suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily
found in the eastern, southeast, southern and some part of the central
regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants
would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30-50 years in
the different future global warming scenario. Among these medicinal
plants, FP (Fritillaria przewalskii) would miss the most habitat
(97.1%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the
least habitat (0.30%). Nevertheless, 41.6% of the threatened medicinal
plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their
physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range
of climate. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened
medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes
regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of
biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP.