loading page

Interruption of influenza transmission under public health emergency response based on real-world data, Beijing.
  • +8
  • Ying Sun,
  • Quanyi Wang,
  • Xiaoli Wang,
  • Shuangsheng Wu,
  • Yi Zhang,
  • Yang Pan,
  • Li Zhang,
  • Wei Duan,
  • Chunna Ma,
  • Peng Yang,
  • Zaihua Wei
Ying Sun
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Author Profile
Quanyi Wang
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China; Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing
Author Profile
Xiaoli Wang
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Author Profile
Shuangsheng Wu
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC); Capital Medical University School of Public Health and Family Medicine
Author Profile
Yi Zhang
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Author Profile
Yang Pan
Beijing Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC)
Author Profile
Li Zhang
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC); Capital Medical University School of Public Health and Family Medicine
Author Profile
Wei Duan
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC)
Author Profile
Chunna Ma
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC); Capital Medical University School of Public Health and Family Medicine
Author Profile
Peng Yang
Beijing Center for Diseases Prevention and Control

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Zaihua Wei
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Author Profile

Abstract

Background. To estimate effect of COVID-19 control measures taken to mitigate community transmission in many regions, we analyzed data based on influenza surveillance system in Beijing from week 27th, 2014 to week 26th, 2020. Methods. We collected weekly number of influenza-like illness (ILI), weekly positive proportion of ILI and weekly ILI proportion in outpatients and the date of COVID-19 measures. We compared influenza activity indicators of influenza season 2019/2020 with preceding five seasons and built two ARIMAX models to estimate the effective of COVID-19 measures. Results. Compared with preceding five influenza seasons, ILIs, positive proportion of ILI, and duration of influenza epidemic period decreased from 13% to 54%, especially, the number of weeks from the peak to the end of influenza epidemic period, decreased from 12 to one. After natural decline considered, weekly ILIs decreased by 48.6% and weekly positive proportion dropped 15% in the second week after emergency response declared, and finally COVID-19 measures reduced 83%. Conclusions. We conclude public health emergency response can interrupt the transmission of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases markedly. Keyword. COVID-19 control measures; influenza; ARIMAX