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Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Alsophila spinulosa under Climate Change Scenario
  • yuan wang
yuan wang
Shanxi University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Alsophila spinulosa (Hook) Tryon, a relict plant of glaciers in the early tertiary, is one of the world’s oldest living fossils and a significant plant for studying ancient climates and species evolution in geographical distribution. We utilized 476 geographical data points of A. spinulosa and analyzed 15 climate, soil, and terrain factors using Biomod2 software to construct an ensemble model. The model was employed to simulate the potential distribution of A. spinulosa during the past (Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene), current, and future periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080), while identifying the primary environmental variables influencing its distribution. The results demonstrated that the ensemble model, derived from four optimal indi-vidual models, yielded superior predictions of suitable habitats for A. spinulosa compared to the single models. The combination model achieved impressive true skill statistic (TSS) and receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.979 and 0.999, respectively, confirming the high accuracy of the simulated outcomes. Presently, the primary distribution of A. spinulosa concen-trates within the region of 15° to 40° N in Asia, with a prominent presence in East Asia, northern South Asia, and Southeast Asia, covering a total area of approximately 1.7858 million km2. The major environmental factors influencing its distribution include isothermality, minimum temper-ature of the coldest month, and precipitation during the warmest quarter. During the Last Glacial Maximum, A. spinulosa was predominantly found in the eastern Himalayan region, and its poten-tial geographical range during the mid-Holocene resembled the current distribution. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. spinulosa is projected to expand northwestward, and its centroid is expected to shift northward as temperatures rise. This migration speed is positively correlated with the degree of warming. The findings provide valuable insights for the conservation, cultivation, and selection of protected areas for A. spinulosa in response to climate change.