Biological and environmental covariates of juvenile sockeye salmon
distribution and abundance in the southeastern Bering Sea, 2002-2018
Abstract
Climate change is altering the distribution and abundance of marine
species, especially in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. In the eastern
Bering Sea, home of the world’s largest run of sockeye salmon
(Oncorhynchus nerka), juvenile sockeye salmon abundance has
increased and their migration path shifted north with warming,
2002-2018. For these sockeye salmon, we quantify environmental and
biological covariate effects within spatio-temporal species distribution
models. Spatio-temporally, with respect to juvenile sockeye salmon
densities: 1) sea surface temperature had a nonlinear effect, 2)
Calanus, a minor prey item, and age-0 pollock (Gadus
chalcogrammus), a major prey item during warm years, had no significant
effect, and 3) juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) had
a positive linear effect on juvenile sockeye salmon densities.
Temporally, juvenile sockeye salmon abundance was positively correlated
with sea surface temperature, age-0 pollock abundances, and juvenile
pink salmon abundance. Changes in population dynamics of sockeye salmon
in response to environmental have potential implications for projecting
specific future food securities and management of fisheries in Arctic
waters.