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Quantifying the probability of a successful marine bioinvasion due to source-destination risk factors
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  • Mimi Tzeng,
  • Lisa Floerl,
  • Jessica Schattschneider,
  • Oliver Floerl,
  • A Jeffs,
  • Anastasija Zaiko
Mimi Tzeng
The University of Auckland

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Lisa Floerl
Cawthron Institute
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Jessica Schattschneider
Cawthron Institute
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Oliver Floerl
Cawthron Institute
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A Jeffs
The University of Auckland Faculty of Science
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Anastasija Zaiko
Sequench, Ltd
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The increasing spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) due to the growth in global shipping traffic is causing widespread concern for the ecological and economic impacts of marine bioinvasions. Risk management authorities need tools to identify pathways and source regions of priority concern in order to better target efforts for preventing NIS introduction. The probability of a successful NIS introduction is affected by the probability that a marine species entrained in a transport vector will survive the voyage between origin and destination locations, and establish an independently reproducing population at the destination. Three important risk factors are voyage duration, range of environmental conditions encountered during transit, and environmental similarity between origin and destination. In this study, we aimed for a globally comprehensive approach of assembling quantifications of source-destination risk factors from every potential origin to every potential destination. To derive estimates of voyage-related marine biosecurity risk, we used computer-simulated vessel paths between pairs of ecoprovinces in the Marine Ecoregions Of the World biogeographic classification system. We used the physical length of each path to calculate voyage duration risk, and the cross-latitudinal extent of the path to calculate voyage path risk. Environmental similarity risk was based on comparing annual average sea surface temperature and salinity within each ecoprovince to those of other ecoprovinces. We derived three separate sets of risk quantifications, one each for voyage duration, voyage path, and environmental similarity. Our quantifications can be applied to studies that require source-destination risk estimates. They can be used separately or combined, depending on the importance of the types of source-destination risks that might be relevant to particular scientific or risk management questions or applications.
08 Jul 2023Submitted to Ecology and Evolution
10 Jul 2023Assigned to Editor
10 Jul 2023Submission Checks Completed
19 Jul 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
18 Sep 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 Oct 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
29 Jan 2024Editorial Decision: Accept