We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). A large inter-model spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to the amount of ozone depletion simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. We use these analyses to come up with effective radiative forcing magnitudes. For all of these satellite climatologies we find an effective radiative forcing outside or on the edge of the previously published “likely” range given by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC, implying an offsetting effect of ozone depletion and/or other atmospheric feedbacks of -0.4 to -0.25 Wm-2, which is in absolute terms is larger than the previous best estimate of -0.15 Wm-2.

Public health risks resulting from urban heat in cities are increasing due to rapid urbanisation and climate change, motivating closer attention to urban heat mitigation and adaptation strategies that enable climate-sensitive urban design and development. These strategies incorporate four key factors influencing heat stress in cities: the urban form (morphology of vegetated and built surfaces), urban fabric, urban function (including human activities), and background climate and regional geographic settings (e.g. topography and distance to water bodies). The first two factors can be modified and redesigned as urban heat mitigation strategies (e.g. changing the albedo of surfaces, replacing hard surfaces with pervious vegetated surfaces, or increasing canopy cover). Regional geographical settings of cities, on the other hand, cannot be modified and while human activities can be modified, it often requires holistic behavioural and policy modifications and the impacts of these can be difficult to quantify. When evaluating the effectiveness of urban heat mitigation strategies in observational or traditional modelling studies, it can be difficult to separate the impacts of modifications to the built and natural forms from the interactions of the geographic influences, limiting the universality of results. To address this, we introduce a new methodology to determine the influence of urban form and fabric on thermal comfort, by utilising a comprehensive combination of possible urban forms, an urban morphology data source, and micro-climate modelling. We perform 9814 simulations covering a wide range of realistic built and natural forms (building, roads, grass, and tree densities as well as building and tree heights) to determine their importance and influence on thermal environments in urban canyons without geographical influences. We show that higher daytime air temperatures and thermal comfort indices are strongly driven by increased street fractions, with maximum air temperatures increases of up to 10 and 15◦C as street fractions increase from 10% (very narrow street canyons and/or extensive vegetation cover) to 80 and 90% (wide street canyons). Up to 5◦C reductions in daytime air temperatures are seen with increasing grass and tree fractions from zero (fully urban) to complete (fully natural) coverage. Similar patterns are seen with the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), with increasing street fractions of 80% and 90% driving increases of 6 and 12◦C, respectively. We then apply the results at a city-wide scale, generating heat maps of several Australian cities showing the impacts of present day urban form and fabric. The resulting method allows mitigation strategies to be tested on modifiable urban form factors isolated from geography, topography, and local weather conditions, factors that cannot easily be modified.

Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecast and climate projections. After several years of common development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990-2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has doubled for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. During boreal summer, overall a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of seasonal dependent processes in a model system.

To better understand the role projected land-use changes (LUC) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse-gas (GHG)-forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North-American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st Century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forced by one global climate model, the MPI-ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5-1.0℃. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4-5℃ greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5-6℃, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG-forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Urban overheating, driven by global climate change and urban development, is a major contemporary challenge which substantially impacts urban livability and sustainability. Overheating represents a multi-faceted threat to well-being, performance, and health of individuals as well as the energy efficiency and economy of cities, and it is influenced by complex interactions between building, city, and global scale climates. In recent decades, extensive discipline-specific research has characterized urban heat and assessed its implications on human life, including ongoing efforts to bridge neighboring disciplines. The research horizon now encompasses complex problems involving a wide range of disciplines, and therefore comprehensive and integrated assessments are needed that address such interdisciplinarity. Here, the objective is to go beyond a review of existing literature and provide a broad overview and future outlook for integrated assessments of urban overheating, defining holistic pathways for addressing the impacts on human life. We (i) detail the characterization of heat exposure across different scales and in various disciplines, (ii) identify individual sensitivities to urban overheating that increase vulnerability and cause adverse impacts in different populations, (iii) elaborate on adaptive capacities that individuals and cities can adopt, (iv) document the impacts of urban overheating on health and energy, and (v) discuss frontiers of theoretical and applied urban climatology, built environment design, and governance toward reduction of heat exposure and vulnerability at various scales. The most critical challenges in future research and application are identified, targeting both the gaps and the need for greater integration in overheating assessments.

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high-resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED–2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the Eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED-2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥ 66%) experienced water-stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%), and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multi-year droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are not only driven by climate and deforestation, but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

The community of Kotzebue, located on the coast of Kotzebue Sound, which is northeast of the Bering Straits adjacent to the Chukchi Sea, is reliant on the waters around Kotzebue Sound for food and economy. There have been reports of cyanobacterial blooms in these waters around Kotzebue but they have not been systematically studied yet, because the region is sparsely populated with few in-situ observations. Cyanobacteria often form surface blooms in freshwater and coastal ecosystems which can be detected using remote sensing techniques. Cyanobacteria are found to have low nutritional value and many species of cyanobacteria produce cyanotoxins, and thus can be harmful to aquatic life and cause public health hazards. In addition, consumption of decaying cyanobacterial blooms by microbes depletes oxygen level which can lead to hypoxia, adversely impacting the benthic community. As the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet due to climate change, thawing permafrost is releasing nutrients that might be enhancing cyanobacterial blooms in the coastal, marine and lacustrine waters of Alaska. In this study, we used remote sensing to study phytoplankton biomass, turbidity and cyanobacterial blooms between mid-June to end of September each year from 2013 to 2019 when the waters around Kotzebue are ice-free. Using images from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2, processed using ACOLITE software, we investigated spatial and temporal changes in water quality parameters such as turbidity and chlorophyll concentration between June and September. We used a combination of true-color images and fai (floating algal index) to detect cyanobacterial blooms. There were about two scenes from Sentinel-2 and about one scene from Landsat-8, for a total of about three scenes every week between June and September. Of these, only 49% of the images were cloud-free. Of the cloud-free images, 29% were found to have a cyanobacterial bloom between August and September for an average of two to four scenes every year. Most of the cyanobacterial blooms were detected in Kobuk Lake near Kotzebue, and nearby sites in Hotham Inlet and Selawik Lake. In 2013, 68% of the images were cloudy which was the highest in the observed years and no cyanobacterial blooms were detected.

Himalaya glaciers are invariably covered by supra-glacial debris. Of the glaciers, the Chhota Shigri Glacier (CSG) in the western Himalaya is basically debris-free yet has the highest melt rate compared to other central and eastern Himalayan glaciers. Here, utilizing osmium isotopic composition and major and trace element geochemistry of cryoconite — a dark-colored aggregate of mineral and organic materials —and glacial surface materials on the ablation zone of the CSG, we show that the surface of CSG is essentially free of anthropogenically emitted particles, contrary to many previous findings. Given this and the lack of debris, we conclude that the high melting rate in CSG is primarily related to the increase of the Earth’s near-surface temperature in direct response to global warming. Thus, monitoring the ice mass loss is further critical given the water source to millions of people.

The paleogeographic evolution of the western USA Great Basin from the Late Cretaceous to the Cenozoic is critical to understanding how the Cordillera at this latitude transitioned from Mesozoic shortening to Cenozoic extension. According to a widely applied model, Cenozoic extension was driven by collapse of elevated crust supported by crustal thicknesses that were potentially double the present ~30–35 km. This model is difficult to reconcile with more recent estimates of moderate regional extension (≤ 50%) and the discovery that most high-angle, basin–range faults slipped rapidly ca. 17 Ma, tens of millions of years after crustal thickening occurred. Here we integrate new and existing geochronology and geologic mapping in the Elko area of northeast Nevada, one of the few places in the Great Basin with substantial exposures of Paleogene strata. We improve age control for strata that have been targeted for studies of regional paleoelevation and paleoclimate across this critical time span. In addition, a regional compilation of the ages of material within a network of middle Cenozoic paleodrainages developed across the Great Basin shows that the age of basal paleovalley fill decreases southward roughly synchronous with voluminous ignimbrite flareup volcanism that swept south across the region ca. 45–20 Ma. Integrating these datasets with the regional record of faulting, sedimentation, erosion, and magmatism, we suggest that volcanism was accompanied by an elevation increase that disrupted drainage systems and shifted the continental divide east into central Nevada from its Late Cretaceous location along the Sierra Nevada arc. The north–south Eocene–Oligocene drainage divide defined by mapping of paleovalleys may thus have evolved as a dynamic feature that propagated southward with magmatism. Despite some local faulting, the northern Great Basin became a vast, elevated volcanic tableland that persisted until dissection by Basin and Range faulting that began ca. 21–17 Ma. Based on this more detailed geologic framework, it is unlikely that Basin and Range extension was driven by Cretaceous crustal overthickening; rather, pre-existing crustal structure was just one of several factors that that led to Basin and Range faulting after ca. 17 Ma—in addition to thermal weakening of the crust associated with Cenozoic magmatism, thermally supported elevation, and changing boundary conditions. Because these causal factors evolved long after crustal thickening ended, during final removal and fragmentation of the shallowly subducting Farallon slab, they are compatible with normal (~45–50 km) thickness crust beneath the Great Basin prior to extension and do not require development of a strongly elevated, Altiplano-like region during Mesozoic shortening.

Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying in the midlatitudes. Recent glacier modeling suggests that runoff from glaciers will continue to provide substantial freshwater in many drainage basins, though the supply will generally diminish throughout the century. In the absence of dynamic glacier ice within global climate models (GCMs), a comprehensive picture of future basin-scale water availability for human and ecosystem services has been elusive. Here, we leverage the results of existing GCMs and a global glacier model to compute the effect of glacial runoff on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), an indicator of basin-scale water availability. We find that glacial runoff tends to increase mean SPEI and reduce interannual variability, even in basins with relatively little glacier cover. However, in many basins we find inter-GCM spread comparable to the amplitude of the ensemble mean glacial effect, which suggests considerable structural uncertainty.

Astronomical variations in tidal magnitude can strongly modulate the severity of coastal flooding on the daily, monthly, and interannual timescales. Here, we present a new quasi-nonstationary joint probability method (qn-SSJPM) that estimates interannual fluctuations in flood hazard caused by the 18.6 and quasi 4.4-year modulations of tidal properties. We demonstrate that the qn-SSJPM provides more precise and stable storm tide probability estimates compared with the standard practice of fitting an extreme value distribution to measured storm tides, which is often biased by the largest few events within the observational period. Applying the qn-SSJPM in the Gulf of Maine, we find significant tidal forcing of flood hazard by the 18.6-year nodal cycle, whereas 4.4-year modulations and a secular trend in tides are small compared to interannual variation and long-term trends in sea-level. The nodal cycle forces decadal oscillations in the 1% annual exceedance probability storm tide at an average rate of ±13.5 mm/y in Eastport, ME; ±4.0 mm/y in Portland, ME; and ±5.9 mm/y in Boston, MA. Currently, nodal forcing is counteracting the sea-level rise-induced increase in flood hazard; however, in 2025, the nodal cycle will reach a minimum and then begin to accelerate flood hazard increase as it moves toward its maximum phase over the subsequent decade. Along the world’s meso-to-macrotidal coastlines, it is therefore critical to consider both sea-level rise and tidal non-stationarity in planning for the transition to chronic flooding that will be driven by SLR in many regions over the next century.

Reducing uncertainty in the global carbon budget requires better quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and its temporal variability. Several methodologies for reconstructing air-sea CO2 exchange from sparse pCO2 observations indicate larger decadal variability than estimated using ocean models. We develop a new application of multiple Large Ensemble Earth system models to assess these reconstructions’ ability to estimate spatiotemporal variability. With our Large Ensemble Testbed, pCO2 fields from 25 ensemble members each of four independent Earth system models are subsampled as the observations and the reconstruction is performed as it would be with real- world observations. The power of a testbed is that the perfect reconstruction is known for each of the 100 original model fields; thus, reconstruction skill can be comprehensively assessed. We find that a commonly used neural-network approach can skillfully reconstruct air-sea CO2 fluxes when and where it is trained with sufficient data. Flux bias is low for the global mean and Northern Hemisphere, but can be regionally high in the Southern Hemisphere. The phase and amplitude of the seasonal cycle are accurately reconstructed outside of the tropics, but longer-term variations are reconstructed with only moderate skill. For Southern Ocean decadal variability, insufficient sampling leads to a 39% [15%:58%, interquartile range] overestimation of amplitude, and phasing is only moderately correlated with known truth (r=0.54 [0.46:0.63]). Globally, the amplitude of decadal variability is overestimated by 21% [3%:34%]. Machine learning, when supplied with sufficient data, can skillfully reconstruct ocean properties. However, data sparsity remains a fundamental limitation to quantification of decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink.

Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of poleward horizontal water vapor transport. Because of its direct relationship with horizontal vapor transport, extreme precipitation, and overall AR impacts over land, the AR size is an important characteristic that needs to be better understood. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms have resulted in large uncertainty in estimating AR sizes, with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different detection methods. We develop and implement five independent size estimation methods to characterize the size of ARs that make landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980-2017 period and reduce the range of size estimation from ARTMIP. ARs that originate in the Northwest Pacific (WP) (100$^\circ$E-180$^\circ$E) have larger sizes and are more zonally oriented than those from the Northeast Pacific (EP) (180$^\circ$E-240$^\circ$E). ARs become smaller through their life cycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They also become more meridionally oriented towards the end of their life cycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this work provide a range of AR areas (between 7x10$^{11}$m$^2$ and 10$^{13}$ m$^2$) that is several orders of magnitude narrower than current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking algorithms; and an objective insight for future studies about AR size changes under different climate scenarios.

Global cloud resolving models (GCRMs) are a new type of general circulation model that explicitly calculates the growth of cloud systems with fine spatial resolutions and more than 10 GCRMs have been developed at present. This chapter of the monograph reviews cloud microphysics schemes used in GCRMs with introductions to the recent progress and researches with GCRMs. Especially, research progress using a pioneer of GCRMs, Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), is focused. Since GCRMs deal with climatology and meteorology, it is a challenging issue to establish cloud microphysics schemes for GCRMs. A brief history of the development of cloud microphysics schemes and cloud-radiation coupling in NICAM is described. In addition, current progress in analytical techniques using satellite simulators is described. The combined use of multi-optical sensors enables us to constrain uncertain processes in cloud microphysics without artificial tuning. As a result, cloud microphysics schemes used in the NICAM naturally represent cloud systems, and hence, the radiative budget is well balanced with little optimization. Finally, a new satellite and a ground validation campaign are introduced for future work.

This paper examines the physical controls of extratropical humidity and clouds by isolating the effects of cloud physics factors in an idealized model. The Held-Suarez dynamical core is used with the addition of passive water vapor and cloud tracers, allowing cloud processes to be explored cleanly. Separate saturation adjustment and full cloud scheme controls are used to consider the strength of advection-condensation theory. Three sets of perturbations to the cloud scheme are designed to test the model’s sensitivity to the physics of condensation, sedimentation, and precipitation formation. The condensation and sedimentation perturbations isolate two key differences between the control cases. First, the sub-grid-scale relative humidity distribution assumed for the cloud macrophysics influences the location and magnitude of the extratropical cloud maxima which interrupt the isentropic transport of moisture to the polar troposphere. Second, within the model’s explicit treatment of cloud microphysics, re-evaporation of hydrometeors moistens and increases clouds in the lower troposphere. In contrast, microphysical processes of precipitation formation (specifically, the ratio of accretion to autoconversion) have negligible effects on humidity, cloudiness, and precipitation apart from the strength of the large-scale condensation and formation cycle. Additionally, counterintuitive relationships—such as cloud condensate and cloud fraction responding in opposing directions—emphasize the need for careful dissection of physical mechanisms. In keeping with advection-condensation theory, circulation sets the patterns of humidity, clouds, and precipitation to first order, with factors explored herein providing secondary controls. The results substantiate the utility of such idealized modeling and highlight key cloud processes to constrain.

Southern Hemisphere (SH) Stratospheric Warming Events (SWEs) are usually associated with a negative phase of the tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the following summer. In contrast, using ensemble climate model simulations we show that the anomalously high ozone concentrations typically occurring during SWEs can force periods of persistent positive tropospheric SAM in austral spring by increasing lower stratospheric static stability and changing troposphere-to-stratosphere wave propagation. Eventually, the tropospheric SAM switches sign to its negative phase in late spring/early summer, but this ‘downward propagation’ of the stratospheric signal does not occur in simulations without seasonal cycle. We find that the downward propagation is forced both dynamically by adiabatic heating and radiatively by increased shortwave absorption by ozone due to the seasonal cycle. Capturing this ozone forcing mechanism in models requires the inclusion of interactive ozone, which has important implications for the predictive skill of current seasonal forecasting systems.

The core tools of science (data, software, and computers) are undergoing a rapid and historic evolution, changing what questions scientists ask and how they find answers. Earth science data are being transformed into new formats optimized for cloud storage that enable rapid analysis of multi-petabyte datasets. Datasets are moving from archive centers to vast cloud data storage, adjacent to massive server farms. Open source cloud-based data science platforms, accessed through a web-browser window, are enabling advanced, collaborative, interdisciplinary science to be performed wherever scientists can connect to the internet. Specialized software and hardware for machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI/ML) are being integrated into data science platforms, making them more accessible to average scientists. Increasing amounts of data and computational power in the cloud are unlocking new approaches for data-driven discovery. For the first time, it is truly feasible for scientists to bring their analysis to data in the cloud without specialized cloud computing knowledge. This shift in paradigm has the potential to lower the threshold for entry, expand the science community, and increase opportunities for collaboration while promoting scientific innovation, transparency, and reproducibility. Yet, we have all witnessed promising new tools which seem harmless and beneficial at the outset become damaging or limiting. What do we need to consider as this new way of doing science is evolving?

The difference between precipitation and evaporation has been extensively used to characterize the water cycle’s response to global warming. However, when it comes to the global scale, the information provided by this metric is inconclusive. Herein, we discuss how the sum of precipitation and evaporation could complement the assessment of global water cycle intensification. To support our argument, we present a brief yet robust correlation analysis of both metrics in four reanalysis data sets (20CR v3, ERA-20C, ERA5, and NCEP/NCAR R1). Additionally, by combining the two metrics, we investigate how well the global water cycle fluxes are represented in the four reanalyses. Among them, we observe four different responses to the temperature increase between 1950-2010, with ERA5 showing the best agreement with the intensification hypothesis. We argue that these discrepancies would remain elusive with the traditional approach, which makes the utilization of the sum of precipitation and evaporation a valuable addition to our methodological toolbox for the assessment of the global water cycle intensification.

Alkalinity, the excess of proton acceptors over donors, plays a major role in ocean chemistry, in buffering and in calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution. Understanding alkalinity dynamics is pivotal to quantify ocean carbon dioxide uptake during times of global change. Here we review ocean alkalinity and its role in ocean buffering as well as the biogeochemical processes governing alkalinity and pH in the ocean. We show that it is important to distinguish between measurable titration alkalinity and charge-balance alkalinity that is used to quantify calcification and carbonate dissolution and needed to understand the impact of biogeochemical processes on components of the carbon dioxide system. A general treatment of ocean buffering and quantification via sensitivity factors is presented and used to link existing buffer and sensitivity factors. The impact of individual biogeochemical processes on ocean alkalinity and pH is discussed and quantified using these sensitivity factors. Processes governing ocean alkalinity on longer time scales such as carbonate compensation, (reversed) silicate weathering and anaerobic mineralization are discussed and used to derive a close-to-balance ocean alkalinity budget for the modern ocean.

The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) exhibits a marked seasonal variability, with the strongest (weakest) variance in northern spring (fall). Such a phase locking feature is investigated through a combined observational and modeling study. Given the PMM perturbation, the wind induced latent heat flux anomaly leads to a strongest (weakest) heating on local sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in MAM (SON) through positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The difference between MAM and SON lies on the strength and area of mean northeasterly trades. Experiments with a simple air-sea coupled model further demonstrate that a PMM-like SSTA perturbation grows much faster in MAM than in SON. The difference is primarily attributed to the seasonal mean wind, not mean SST condition. It is greatest strength and area of the mean northeasterly trade in MAM that leads to most efficient wind-evaporation-SST feedback and thus fastest PMM growth rate.

This is a test-case study assessing the ability of deep learning methods to generalize to a future climate (end of 21st century) when trained to classify thunderstorms in model output representative of the present-day climate. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to classify strongly-rotating thunderstorms from a current climate created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at high-resolution, then evaluated against thunderstorms from a future climate, and found to perform with skill and comparatively in both climates. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), which was not used as an input attribute, the CNN learned physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Physical features were not prescribed but rather learned from the data, such as the importance of dry air at mid-levels for intense thunderstorm development when low-level moisture is present (i.e., convective available potential energy). Explanation techniques also revealed that thunderstorms classified as strongly rotating are associated with learned rotation signatures. Results show that the creation of synthetic data with ground truth is a viable alternative to human-labeled data and that a CNN is able to generalize a target using learned features that would be difficult to encode due to spatial complexity. Most importantly, results from this study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future climate extremes and can exhibit out-of-sample robustness with hyperparameter tuning in certain applications.

Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice-ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900-2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950-), AW inflow observations (1996-), and other long-term time series of sea ice extent (1900-), glacier retreat (1984-) and Barents Sea hydrography (1900-). The Arctic Ocean, including the Nordic and Barents Seas, has warmed since the 1970s. This warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and sea ice loss and has contributed to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers on Greenland. Heat loss to the atmosphere is largest in the Nordic Seas (60% of total) with large variability linked to the frequency of Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the region, but there is no long-term statistically significant trend. Heat loss from the Barents Sea (~30%) and Arctic seas farther north (~10%) is overall smaller, but exhibit large positive trends. The AW inflow, total heat loss to the atmosphere, and dense outflow have all increased since 1900. These are consistently related through theoretical scaling, but the AW inflow increase is also wind-driven. The Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ~30% over the last century - consistent with Arctic sea ice loss allowing stronger air-sea interaction and is ~8% of the global uptake.

Future precipitation changes are controlled by the atmospheric energy budget, with temperature, water vapor, and absorbing aerosols playing dominant roles in driving radiative changes. Atmospheric energy budgets are calculated for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using ScenarioMIP projections from phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and are used to quantify the influence of 21st century aerosol cleanup on precipitation. Absorbing aerosol influences on shortwave absorption are isolated from the effects of water vapor. Apparent hydrologic sensitivity is ~40% higher for the “Middle of the Road” (SSP2-4.5) scenario with aerosol cleanup than for the “Regional Rivalry” (SSP3-7.0) scenario that maintains aerosol. Regionally, cleanup-induced changes in the atmospheric energy budget are of a similar magnitude to the precipitation increases themselves and are larger than the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. Policy choices about future absorbing aerosol emissions will therefore have major impacts on global and regional precipitation changes.

Torrential rainfall and rapid snowmelt in April 2017 caused deadly floods in northwestern Iran. An atmospheric river (AR), propagating across the Middle East and North Africa, was found responsible for this extreme event. The snowmelt was triggered by precipitation and warm advection associated with the AR. Total satellite-based rainfall for April 2017 was moderately below normal, suggesting that a heavy flood can happen during dry years. The AR was fed by moisture from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Despite its adverse societal consequences, this event was beneficial to the recovery of the desiccating Lake Urmia. The impacts of this AR were not limited to flooding; it also facilitated dust transport to the region. This distinct characteristic of the ARs in the Middle East is attributed to major mineral dust sources located along their pathways. This event was reasonably predicted at 7-day lead time, crucially important for successful early warning systems.