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Historical Trends in Ocean Heat, Carbon, Salinity, and Oxygen Simulations: Impact of a Changing Ocean Circulation
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  • Scott Mannis,
  • Darryn W. Waugh,
  • Anand Gnanadesikan,
  • Thomas W N Haine
Scott Mannis
Johns Hopkins University
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Darryn W. Waugh
Johns Hopkins University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anand Gnanadesikan
Johns Hopkins University
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Thomas W N Haine
Johns Hopkins University
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Abstract

Examination of historical simulations from CMIP6 models shows substantial pre-industrial to present-day changes in ocean heat (ΔH), salinity (ΔS), oxygen (ΔO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (ΔDIC), chlorofluorocarbon-12 (ΔCFC12), and sulfur hexafluoride (ΔSF6). The spatial structure of the changes and the consistency among models differ among tracers: ΔDIC, ΔCFC12, and ΔSF6 all are largest near the surface, are positive throughout the thermocline with weak changes below, and there is good agreement amongst the models. In contrast, the largest ΔH, ΔS, and ΔO2 are not necessarily at the surface, their sign varies within the thermocline, and there are large differences among models. These differences between the two groups of tracers are linked to climate-driven changes in the ocean transport, with this tracer “redistribution” playing a significant role in changes in ΔH, ΔS, and ΔO2 but not the other tracers. Tracer redistribution is prominent in the southern subtropics, in a region where apparent oxygen utilization and ideal age indicate increased ventilation time scales. The tracer changes are linked to a poleward shift of the peak Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, which causes a similar shift of the subtropical gyres, and anomalous upwelling in the subtropics. This wind - tracer connection is also suggested to be a factor in the large model spread in some tracers, as there is also a large model spread in wind trends. A similar multi-tracer analysis of observations could provide insights into the relative role of the addition and redistribution of tracers in the ocean.
05 Dec 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
07 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive