Abstract
We conduct numerical experiments to examine two studies that reported
preseismic anomalies in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and
argued for the significance of their respective analyses based on
statistical evaluations. The first study is Liu et al. (2018), who
statistically studied the relationship between 62 M≥6 earthquakes in the
Chinese interior over an 18-year period and the TEC, which was deduced
from the Global Ionospheric Map. The TEC showed anomalies with specific
polarities at set times during certain days that preceded the
earthquakes. They defined alarms based on this and drew receiver
operating characteristic curves, which yielded a significantly better
performance (higher area under the curve (AUC) and lower p-value)
than random alarms. We conduct this analysis using random synthetic
earthquakes. The resulting AUC and p-values are very similar to
those for real earthquakes, indicating that the high performance of the
Liu et al. (2018) alarm is an artifact. The second study is Le et al.
(2011), who classified the TEC time series into anomalous and
non-anomalous days based on the TEC perturbation. They found that the
anomalous day rate increased as the nucleation time of the earthquakes
was approached, especially for larger and shallower earthquakes. We
conduct the same analysis using random synthetic earthquakes. The
anomalous day rate that is comparable to their result occurs in
~40 % of the 1,000 random trials, thereby suggesting
that their result may also be an artifact.