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Pitfalls in using statistical bias-correction methods to characterize climate change impacts
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  • Nicolás A. Vásquez,
  • Pablo A. Mendoza,
  • Wouter Johannes Maria Knoben,
  • Louise Arnal,
  • Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga,
  • Martyn P. Clark,
  • Ximena Vargas
Nicolás A. Vásquez
Universidad de Chile

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Pablo A. Mendoza
Universidad de Chile
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Wouter Johannes Maria Knoben
University of Saskatchewan
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Louise Arnal
University of Saskatchewan
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Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga
Universidad de Chile
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Martyn P. Clark
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskacthewan Coldwater Laboratory
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Ximena Vargas
Universidad de Chile
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Abstract

Characterizing climate change impacts on water resources typically relies on Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs that are bias-corrected using observational datasets. In this process, two pivotal decisions are (i) the Bias Correction Method (BCM) and (ii) how to handle the historically observed time series, which can be used as a continuous whole (i.e., without dividing it into sub-periods), or partitioned into monthly, seasonal (e.g., three months), or any other temporal stratification (TS). Here, we examine how the interplay between the choice of BCM, TS, and the raw GCM seasonality may affect historical portrayals and projected changes. To this end, we use outputs from 29 GCMs belonging to the CMIP6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 scenario, using seven BCMs and three TSs (entire period, seasonal, and monthly). The results show that the effectiveness of BCMs in removing biases can vary depending on the TS and climate indices analyzed. Further, the choice of BCM and TS may yield different projected change signals and seasonality (especially for precipitation), even for climate models with low bias and a reasonable representation of precipitation seasonality during a reference period. Because some BCMs may be computationally expensive, we recommend using the linear scaling method as a diagnostics tool to assess how the choice of TS may affect the projected precipitation seasonality of a specific GCM. More generally, the results presented here unveil trade-offs in the way BCMs are applied, regardless of the climate regime, urging the hydroclimate community for a careful implementation of these techniques.
16 Nov 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Nov 2023Published in ESS Open Archive