Klinkenberg-corrected gas permeability (k) estimation in tight-gas sandstones is essential for gas exploration and production in low-permeability porous rocks. Most models for estimating k are a function of porosity (ϕ), tortuosity (τ), pore shape factor (s) and a characteristic length scale (lc). Estimation of the latter, however, has been the subject of debate in the literature. Here we invoke two different upscaling approaches from statistical physics: (1) the EMA and (2) critical path analysis (CPA) to estimate lc from pore throat-size distribution derived from mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP) curve. τ is approximated from: (1) concepts of percolation theory and (2) formation resistivity factor measurements (F = τ/ϕ). We then estimate k of eighteen tight-gas sandstones from lc, τ, and ϕ by assuming two different pore shapes: cylindrical and slit-shaped. Comparison with Klinkenberg-corrected k measurements showed that τ was estimated more accurately from F measurements than from percolation theory. Generally speaking, our results implied that the EMA estimated k within a factor of two of the measurements and more precisely than CPA. We further found that the assumption of cylindrical pores yielded more accurate k estimates when τ was estimated from concepts of percolation theory than the assumption of slit-shaped pores. However, the EMA with slit-shaped pores estimated k more precisely than that with cylindrical pores when τ was estimated from F measurements.

Tikhonov’s regularization method is the standard technique applied to obtain models of the subsurface conductivity dis- tribution from electric or electromagnetic measurements by solving UT (m) = ||F(m) - d||^2 + P(m): The second term correspond to the stabilizing functional, with P(m) = ||m||^2 the usual approach, and the regularization parameter. Due to the roughness penalizer inclusion, the model developed by Tikhonov’s algorithm tends to smear discontinuities, a feature that may be undesirable. An important requirement for the regularizer is to allow the recovery of edges, and smooth the homogeneous parts. As is well known, Total Variation (TV) is now the standard approach to meet this requirement. Recently, Wang et.al. proved convergence for alternating direction method of multipliers in nonconvex, nonsmooth optimization. In this work we present a study of several algorithms for model recovering of Geosounding data based on Inmal Convolution, and also on hybrid, TV and second order TV and nonsmooth, nonconvex regularizers, observing their performance on synthetic and real data. The algorithms are based on Bregman iteration and Split Bregman method, and the geosounding method is the low-induction numbers magnetic dipoles. Non-smooth regularizers are considered using the Legendre-Fenchel transform.

A transient period of climate change, characterized by a global warming of ~2.5–5°C followed by a cooling to pre-excursion conditions, occurred during the last 300 kyr of the Maastrichtian (~66.34–66.02 Ma). This instability may have played a role in destabilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems, priming the system for abrupt extinction at the K-Pg boundary, likely triggered by a large bolide impact. This pre-K-Pg warming event has often been linked to the main phase of Deccan Trap volcanism, however large uncertainties associated with radio-isotopic dating methods of basalts, along with low sedimentation rates and hiatuses in many studied sedimentary sequences, have long hampered a definitive correlation. To complement recent advances in dating of the traps, we have generated the first complete and highest resolution (2.5–4 kyr) benthic stable δ13C and δ18O record for the final million years of the Maastrichtian using the epifaunal foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi from ODP Site 1262, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, calibrated to an updated orbitally-tuned age model. We then compare our data to other previously published geochemical data from other sites in the high, middle, and low latitudes. Our data confirms that the onset of the warming event coincides with the onset of the main phase of Deccan volcanism, strongly suggesting a causal link. Furthermore, spectral analysis of our extended late Maastrichtian-Early Eocene record suggests that the onset of the warming event corresponds to a 405-kyr eccentricity minima, in contrast to many transient warming events (hyperthermals) of the Paleogene, suggesting a control by orbital forcing alone is unlikely. A peculiar feature of the event, compared to other hyperthermals, is a muted carbon cycle response during warming, which may be related to the comparatively heavier δ13C signature of volcanogenic CO2 (–7‰), compared to other sources of light carbon invoked to explain Paleogene hyperthermals. The warming event coincided with minor extinctions of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera, along with dwarfing and blooms of the opportunistic disaster genera Guembelitria, suggesting that Deccan-induced climatic instability may have played a role in priming high-stress ecosystems which were tipped over a threshold into mass extinction during bolide impact.

Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation. A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

Turbidity currents transport vast quantities of sediment across the seafloor and form the largest sediment accumulations on Earth. These flows pose a hazard to strategically important seafloor infrastructure and are important agents for the transport of organic carbon and nutrients that support deep-sea ecosystems. Therefore, it is important to quantify the scale of these flows, the amount of sediment they transport, and the evolution of their discharge over time and space along their flow path. Two modes of flow evolution have been proposed based on experimental and numerical models. The first is termed ignition, where flows entrain seafloor sediment, becoming more voluminous and powerful and increasing their discharge. In the second mode of evolution, called dissipation, sediment falls out of suspension, so flows decelerate and lose discharge. Thus far, field-scale turbidity currents have only been measured at a handful of sites worldwide, and never in detail at multiple locations along their full course. Therefore, it has not yet been possible to determine when, where, and why flows diverge into these two modes in the deep sea, or how flow discharge varies. The ambitious multi-institution Coordinated Canyon Experiment measured turbidity currents at seven instrumented moorings along the Monterey Canyon, offshore California. Fifteen flows were recorded, including the fastest events yet measured at high resolution (>8 m/s). This remarkable dataset provides the first opportunity to quantify down-channel sediment and flow discharge evolution of turbidity currents in the deep sea. To understand whether flows ignite or dissipate, we derive total and sediment discharges for each of the flows at all seven mooring locations down the canyon. Discharges are calculated from measured velocities, and sediment concentrations are derived using a novel inversion method. We observe two distinct flow modes, as most flows rapidly dissipated in the upper reaches of the canyon, while three ran out for the full 50 km array length. We then explore why only these three flows ignited and discuss the implications for canyon and channel capacity and evolution.

Long-term soil moisture datasets at high spatial resolution are important in agricultural, hydrological, and climatic applications. The soil moisture estimates can be achieved using satellite remote sensing observations. However, the satellite soil moisture data are typically available at coarse spatial resolutions (~ several tens of km), therefore require further downscaling. Different satellite soil moisture products have to be conjointly employed in developing a consistent time-series of high resolution soil moisture, while the discrepancies amongst different satellite retrievals need to be resolved. This study aims to downscale three different satellite soil moisture products, the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, 25 km), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP, 36 km) and the SMAP-Enhanced (9 km), and to conduct an inter-comparison of the downscaled results. The downscaling approach is developed based on the relationship between the diurnal temperature difference and the daily mean soil moisture content. The approach is applied to two sub-catchments (Krui and Merriwa River) of the Goulburn River catchment in the Upper Hunter region (NSW, Australia) to estimate soil moisture at 1 km resolution for 2015. The three coarse spatial resolution soil moisture products and their downscaled results will be validated with the in-situ observations obtained from the Scaling and Assimilation of Soil Moisture and Streamflow (SASMAS) network. The spatial and temporal patterns of the downscaled results will also be analysed. This study will provide the necessary insights for data selection and bias corrections to maintain the consistency of a long-term high resolution soil moisture dataset. The results will assist in developing a time-series of high resolution soil moisture data over the south-eastern Australia.

The response of atmospheric variability to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) at interannual to decadal time-scales has been extensively investigated. However, the response of the atmosphere to the subseasonal variability of the TPSC has been largely ignored. Here, we found that the subseasonal variability of the TPSC revealed by daily data can serve as an indicator of East Asian atmospheric circulation on medium-range time-scales (approximately 3–7 days in advance). The subseasonal variability of the TPSC influences the upper-level regional atmospheric circulations, especially the East Asia upper-level westerly jet stream (EAJS), during wintertime. The variability of the TPSC modulates the land surface thermal conditions over the TP, which acts as an elevated cooling source in the middle troposphere during wintertime. The upper-level geopotential height is affected by the TPSC and then the zonal wind. As a result, the EAJS is influenced.

In this work we extend previous studies by exploring the potential impact of spectroscopic knowledge along with atmospheric state knowledge on retrievals of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) column amounts from laser differential absorption spectrometer (LAS) measurements. This has been done for multiple CO2 absorption lines in the 1.57 and 2.05 μm regions, and for CH4 in the 1.65 μm region. One such potential source of error in performing XCO2 retrievals is modeled surface pressure. Since it has been proposed to derive surface pressure from LAS-based O2 measurements in lieu of modeled surface pressure for use in XCO2 retrievals as a means of error reduction, our past work has also attempted to characterize and quantify potential improvements in XCO2 retrieval error associated with O2-derived surface pressure for a set of CO2 and O2 absorption line combinations. All of our previous analyses have relied on a radiative-transfer-based simulation framework utilizing the Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM), version 12.2 (release date November, 2012). LBLRTM has undergone several upgrades since version 12.2, to include updates to its line parameter database, updates to its continuum model, and bug fixes. Our current work revisits our prior assessments using the latest version of LBLRTM (version 12.8) and comparisons are provided and discussed.

Wave breaking transfers momentum between waves to currents. In doing so it dissipates wave energy and affects long-term dispersion and transport of tracers, Wave breaking also affects the transfer of wind stresses to the ocean and is a major player in ocean acoustics, the dynamics of near-surface gas exchanges and the dynamics of phytoplankton and buoyant pollutants. Progressive waves were generated numerically using Gerris [6]. The velocity field was then used to estimate Lagrangian parcel dynamics in the neighborhood of the breaking event. The trans- port generated by the breaking events is shown to be significant, when compared to the wave-generated residual flow, as captured by the Stokes drift. We formulate a parametrization of the break- ing velocity based upon an analysis of the Largrangian dynamics of fluid parcels. Further, we describe how the breaking velocity is incorporated in the vortex force formulation of wave current interactions [1, 2].

Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

The natural flow regime within a watershed can be considered as the expected temporal patterns of streamflow variation in the absence of human impacts. While ecosystems have evolved to function under these conditions, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered by human activities. Land use change, including the development of agriculture and urbanization, is a primary cause of the loss of natural flow regimes. These changes have altered discharge volume, timing, and variability, and consequently affected the structure and functioning of river ecosystems. The Meramec River watershed is located in east central Missouri and changes in land use have been the primary factor impacting flow regimes across the watershed. In this study, a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was developed to simulate a long-term time series of streamflow (1978-2014) within the watershed. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics and graphical technique including R-squared, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, cumulative error, and 1:1-ratio comparison between observed and simulated variables. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to quantify the responses of the watershed when it was a forested natural landscape. An Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) approach was applied to characterize the flow regime under the current landcover conditions as well as the simulated natural flow regime under the no land use change scenario. Differences in intra- and inter-annual ecologically relevant flow metrics were then compared using SWAT model outputs in conjunction with the IHA approach based on model outputs from current and no land use change conditions. This study provides a watershed-scale understanding of effects of land use change on a river’s flow variability and provides a framework for the development of restoration plans for heavily altered watersheds.

Pulse-like ruptures tend to be more sensitive to stress heterogeneity than crack-like ones. For instance, a stress-barrier can more easily stop the propagation of a pulse than that of a crack. While crack-like ruptures tend to homogenize the stress field within their rupture area, pulse-like ruptures develop heterogeneous stress fields. This feature of pulse-like ruptures can potentially lead to complex seismicity with a wide range of magnitudes akin to the Gutenberg-Richter law. Previous models required a friction law with severe velocity-weakening to develop pulses and complex seismicity. Recent dynamic rupture simulations show that the presence of a damaged zone around a fault can induce pulse-like rupture, even under a simple slip-weakening friction law, although the mechanism depends strongly on initial stress conditions. Here we aim at testing if fault zone damage is a sufficient ingredient to generate complex seismicity. In particular, we investigate the effects of damaged fault zones on the emergence and sustainability of pulse-like ruptures throughout multiple earthquake cycles, regardless of initial conditions. We consider a fault bisecting a homogeneous low-rigidity layer (the damaged zone) embedded in an intact medium. We conduct a series of earthquake cycle simulations to investigate the effects of two fault zone properties: damage level D and thickness H. The simulations are based on classical rate-and-state friction, the quasi-dynamic approximation and the software QDYN (https://github.com/ydluo/qdyn). Selected fully-dynamic simulations are also performed with a spectral element method. Our numerical results show the development of complex rupture patterns in some damaged fault configurations, including events of different sizes, as well as pulse-like, multi-pulse and hybrid pulse-crack ruptures. We further apply elasto-static theory to assess how D and H affect ruptures with constant stress drop, in particular the flatness of their slip profile, which is an indicator of pulse-like rupture. We find qualitative agreement between our theoretical and computational results regarding the range of damaged zone properties that enable pulse-like rupture.

ENSO events are the most significant interannual perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions failed because only large eruptions across the globe, which typically eject tephra into the stratosphere, were considered. I have analysed all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia, about 10ºS to 10ºN and 90ºE to 160ºE (4d), the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database since 1500 occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated in the literature to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Circulation and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm creating convection there and further weakening the Walker Circulation. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at ρ < 0.02 at 5c below. In recent decades the anthropogenic SE Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP) has intensified the volcanic plume in some years from September to November (SON). Using NASA satellite data and the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset I show correlation coefficients typically over 0.70 and up to 0.99 at ρ < 0.01 between the aerosol optical depth (AOD) or aerosol index (AI) and the ENSO indices on a detrended basis in SON at 5a. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are possible: (1) A causes B; (2) B causes A; (3) C, another event, causes A & B simultaneously; (4) It’s a coincidence; and (5) The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic results: only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanic eruptions; and are backed up by 4 independent satellite datasets and NASA’s MERRA-2 reanalysis which assimilates aerosol observations. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the sole cause of all ENSO events.

Equifinality is understood as one of the fundamental difficulties in the study of open complex systems, including catchment hydrology. A review of the hydrologic literature reveals that the term equifinality has been widely used, but in many cases inconsistently and without coherent recognition of the various facets of equifinality, which can lead to ambiguity but also methodological fallacies. Therefore, in this study we first characterise the term equifinality within the context of hydrological modelling by reviewing the genesis of the concept of equifinality and then presenting a theoretical framework. During past decades, equifinality has mainly been studied as a subset of aleatory (arising due to randomness) uncertainty and for the assessment of model parameter uncertainty. Although the connection between parameter uncertainty and equifinality is undeniable, we argue there is more to equifinality than just aleatory parameter uncertainty. That is, the importance of equifinality and epistemic uncertainty (arising due to lack of knowledge) and their implications is overlooked in our current practice of model evaluation. Equifinality and epistemic uncertainty in studying, modelling, and evaluating hydrologic processes are treated as if they can be simply discussed in (or often reduced to) probabilistic terms (as for aleatory uncertainty). The deficiencies of this approach to conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling are demonstrated for selected Australian catchments by examination of parameter and internal flux distributions and interactions within SIMHYD. On this basis, we present a new approach that expands equifinality concept beyond model parameters to inform epistemic uncertainty. The new approach potentially facilitates the identification and development of more physically plausible models and model evaluation schemes particularly within the multiple working hypotheses framework, and is generalisable to other fields of environmental modelling as well.

While Jupiter’s gravity strongly binds the neutral atmosphere to the planet, energization in the auroral region can lead to field-aligned upward transport and escape of electrons and ions. This field-aligned transport mechanism provides a way for heavier ions like H2+ and H3+ to enter Jupiter’s magnetosphere. Formation of H3+ from H2+ occurs quickly in the collisional ionosphere, so rapid field-aligned transport of H2+ is the most likely mechanism for H2+ ions present in Jupiter’s high-latitude ionosphere and magnetosphere. We model these processes using the PWOM model for ionospheric field-aligned transport and J-GITM providing the neutral atmosphere and lower ionospheric boundary. The ionosphere is formed and heated by a combination of solar EUV flux and electorn precipitaiton. The effects of energization from electron precipitation and resonant wave heating are also accounted for. We show the energy input that is needed to produce ion escape in both the fluid and kinetic regimes, and we show the formation of ion conics in the kinetic PWOM model. We discuss what observations from JUNO are needed to allow us to constrain and test our model results.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) includes a hydro-acoustic network as one of the monitoring technologies. The underwater part of this network includes six stations each composed of two sets of three hydrophones or triplets, except for HA01 (Cape Leeuwin, Australia) which is composed of a single triplet. The hydro-acoustic network is now complete with the recent installation of the HA04 station located in the Southern Ocean island of Crozet (France). A large number of calls emanating from marine mammals are recorded by the hydrophones, and we present examples where the animals are sufficiently close to attempt a range estimate. We also present examples of scattered arrivals and related interpretations. One striking example of extremely accurate range estimation is obtained for a whale in the neighborhood of the Cape Leeuwin (Australia) HA01 IMS stations. The proximity to the station and in particular to hydrophone H01W2 was first hypothesized because a running cross-correlation computation showed that the apparent velocity of the source was very high and could not be explained by hydro-acoustic waves travelling within the SOFAR channel. Since the far-field, plane wave assumption does not apply anymore in this case, a grid search was implemented to locate the source of the signal with the added assumption that the source is close to the ocean surface. As a further confirmation of the proximity of the source to the hydrophones, and given the expectation that such a source would generate scattering from the ocean floor and from the free surface, reflections are observed and the travel time of the scattered waves confirm the position calculated from the grid search using the direct arrivals.

The partial reflection facility of the Polar Geophysical Institute (the Tumanny observatory, 69.0N, 35.7E) has observed behavior of the high-latitude lower ionosphere during the 20 March 2015 total solar eclipse. There were several effects during the eclipse. At the heights of 60–80 km the ionosphere has shown the effect of a “short night”, but at the higher altitudes local enhanced electron concentration had a wave-like form. Data received by the riometer of the Tumanny observatory have also shown wave-like behavior. The behavior can be explained by influence of acoustic-gravity waves which originated after cooling of the atmosphere during the lunar shadow supersonic movement, and transport processes during the eclipse. During the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse there was a substorm at the high latitudes. But after the end of the substorm in the region of the Tumanny observatory the observed amplitudes of the reflected waves had wave effects which could be connected with the coming waves from the region of the eclipse. The wave features were also shown in the behavior of the total electron content (TEC) of the lower ionosphere. During several solar eclipses it was implemented observations of lower ionosphere behavior by the partial reflection facility of the Tumanny observatory. The consideration of the lower ionosphere TEC had revealed common features in the TEC behavior during the eclipses. The photochemical theory of processes in the lower ionosphere is very complicated and up to now it is not completely developed. Therefore introduction of the effective coefficients determining the total speed of several important reactions has been widely adopted when modeling the D-region of the ionosphere. However, experimental opportunities for obtaining effective recombination coefficients are rather limited. One of the methods to estimate effective recombination coefficients uses the phenomenon of a solar eclipse. During solar eclipses at the partial reflection facility of the Tumanny observatory observations were carried out. It gave possibility to obtain the behavior of the electron concentration in time at the selected heights. Using the obtained experimental profiles, the effective recombination coefficients at the D-region heights of the ionosphere have been evaluated.

Over the past fifteen years, the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite mission has provided the scientific community with the most reliable Earth radiation budget data. This presentation offers quantitative assessment of the published CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 2.8 and Edition 4.0 data products, and reveals several internal patterns, ratios and regularities within the annual global mean flux components of the all-sky and clear-sky surface and atmospheric energy budgets. The found patterns, among others, include: (i) direct relationships between the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative and surface radiative and non-radiative fluxes (contradicting the expectation that TOA and surface fluxes are physically decoupled); (ii) integer ratios and relationships between the absorbed and emitted surface and atmospheric energy flow elements; and (iii) definite connections among the clear-sky and the all-sky shortwave, longwave and non-radiative (turbulent) flux elements and the corresponding greenhouse effect. Comparison between the EBAF Ed2.8 and Ed4.0 SFC and TOA data products and trend analyses of the normalized clear-sky and all-sky greenhouse factors are presented. Longwave cloud radiative effect (LW CRE) proved to be playing a principal role in organizing the found numerical patterns in the surface and atmospheric energy flow components. All of the revealed structures are quantitatively valid within the one-sigma range of uncertainty of the involved individual flux elements. This presentation offers a conceptual framework to interpret the found relationships and shows how the observed CERES fluxes can be deduced from this proposed physical model. An important conclusion drawn from our analysis is that the internal atmospheric and surface energy flow system forms a definite structure and seems to be more constrained to the incoming solar energy than previously thought.