Modeling, Estimation, and Optimal Control of Anti-COVID-19 Multi-dose
Vaccine Administration
Abstract
The recent trends of the COVID-19 research are being devoted to disease
transmission modeling in presence of vaccinated individuals, while the
emerging needs are being focused on developing effective strategies for
the optimal distribution of vaccine between population.
In this context, we propose a novel non-linear time-varying model that
effectively supports policy-makers in predicting and analyzing the
dynamics of COVID-19 when partially and fully immune individuals are
included in the population. Specifically, this paper proposes an
accurate SIRUCQHE epidemiological model, with eight compartments
(namely, Susceptible, Infected, Removed, Unsusceptible, Contagious,
Quarantined, Hospitalized, and Extinct).
Differently from the related literature, where the common strategies
typically rely on the prioritization of the different classes of
individuals, we propose a novel Model Predictive Control approach to
optimally control the multi-dose vaccine administration in the case the
available number of doses is not sufficient to cover the whole
population. Focusing on the minimization of the expected number of
deaths, the approach discriminates between the number of first and
second doses, thus considering also the possibility that some
individuals may receive only one injection if the resulting expected
fatalities are low.
To show the effectiveness of the resulting strategies, we first
calibrate the model on the Israeli scenario using real data to get
reliable predictions on the pandemic dynamics. Lastly, we estimate the
impact of the vaccine administration on the virus dynamics and, in
particular, based on validated model, we assess the impact of the first
dose of the Pfitzer’s vaccine confirming the results of clinical tests.
Extended version of the paper published in Proceedings of the IEEE
16th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering
(CASE)
How to cite: Scarabaggio, P., Carli, R., Cavone, G., Epicoco,
N., & Dotoli, M. “Modeling, Estimation, and Optimal Control of
Anti-COVID-19 Multi-dose Vaccine Administration.” In 2021 IEEE
17th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering
(CASE) (pp. 990-995). IEEE. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1109/CASE49439.2021.9551418
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