Abstract
Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean-ice
processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water
production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice
coverage. Few studies have examined projected changes in these winds,
even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the
ocean’s response to climate change. In this work we examine historical
changes in the near-Antarctic surface winds using Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and reanalysis data, and quantify
projected changes to the end of the 21st Century. These changes include
a significant reduction in both the easterly and meridional wind
components, which under the high emission scenario amounts to 23% and
7% respectively, most of which occurs during the summer season. The
projected weakening of surface winds are coherent with a trend towards a
positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole-to-coast
meridional pressure gradient.