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Inferring the main drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility
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  • Marko Djordjevic,
  • Igor Salom,
  • Sofija Markovic,
  • Andjela Rodic,
  • Ognjen Milicevic,
  • Magdalena Djordjevic
Marko Djordjevic
University of Belgrade, University of Belgrade

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Igor Salom
Institute of Physics Belgrade, Institute of Physics Belgrade
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Sofija Markovic
University of Belgrade - Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade - Faculty of Biology
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Andjela Rodic
University of Belgrade - Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade - Faculty of Biology
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Ognjen Milicevic
School of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade
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Magdalena Djordjevic
Institute of Physics Belgrade, Institute of Physics Belgrade
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Abstract

Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we concentrate on basic reproduction number R0, which is not sensitive to testing coverage and represents transmissibility in an absence of social distancing and in a completely susceptible population. While many variables may potentially influence R0, a high correlation between these variables may obscure the result interpretation. Consequently, we combine Principal Component Analysis with feature selection methods from several regression-based approaches to identify the main demographic and meteorological drivers behind R0. We robustly obtain that country’s wealth/development (GDP per capita or Human Development Index) is by far the most important R0 predictor, probably being a good proxy for the overall contact frequency in a population. This main effect is modulated by built-up area per capita (crowdedness in indoor space), onset of infection (likely related to increased awareness of infection risks), net migration, unhealthy living lifestyle/conditions including pollution, seasonality, and possibly BCG vaccination prevalence. Also, we show that several variables that significantly correlate with transmissibility do not directly influence R0 or affect it differently than suggested by naive analysis.