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\begin{document}

\title{}



\author[1]{Zachary Espinosa}%
\author[1]{Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth}%
\author[1]{Cecilia Bitz}%
\affil[1]{Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) has set three record summertime
minimums occurring in 2017, 2022, and 2023. These recent extremes
culminated in a record low SIA anomaly in austral winter 2023, when SIA
was over 2 million km\^{}2 below climatology, resulting from negative
sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies centered in the Ross, eastern
Weddell, and East Antarctic Seas. We show that a fully-coupled Earth
System Model run with historic and anthropogenic forcing and nudged to
observed winds over 1950-2023 reproduces the observed austral winter
2023 SIC anomalies. In a sensitivity test that had the impact of 2023
ENSO conditions removed via regression, we show that the 2023 transition
from La Ni\selectlanguage{ngerman}ña to El Niño had a negligible impact. Next, using an ensemble
initialized on January 1st 2023 nudged to past years' winds, we
demonstrate that \textasciitilde{}70\% of the total Antarctic SIA
anomaly was predictable six months in advance and driven by warm
Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures that developed prior to 2023,
with the remaining \textasciitilde{}30\%~ attributable to 2023
atmospheric circulation. Finally, an ensemble forecast suggests that
Antarctic SIA is likely to remain significantly below climatology in
austral winter 2024 due to continuing warm Southern Ocean conditions.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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