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\begin{document}

\title{Future of Satellite Reentry and Earth's Atmosphere: the Lifetime and
Direct Radiative Forcing of Space Debris Reentry Alumina}



\author[1]{Asha K. Jain}%
\author[1]{Sebastian David Eastham}%
\author[2]{Daniel Hastings}%
\affil[1]{Massachusetts Institute of Technology}%
\affil[2]{MIT}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Numerous satellite operators are building megaconstellations in Low
Earth Orbit (LEO) with hundreds of satellites, placing new satellites
and spent rocket stages in orbit. Once these objects fail, they are
often removed from LEO via atmospheric reentry, producing metallic
particles that can interact with ozone chemistry and Earth's radiative
balance. The extent of these interactions remains poorly understood
despite their importance to current space governance and policymaking.\\
Helping to address this gap, this paper estimates the distribution,
lifetime and direct radiative forcing of reentry-ablated alumina using
an Earth system model. We consider a future scenario where all
megaconstellations publicly filed at the Federal Communications
Commission as of 2022 are operating, amounting to 2.52 Gg/yr of
reentry-ablated alumina emissions.\\
As a conservative approximation, we find that reentry-ablated alumina
particles have an atmospheric lifetime between one and two years,
leading to a cooling radiative forcing of approximately -0.378mW/m2.\\
Simulations with fine alumina particles produce between 14\% and 36\%
larger radiative forcings and have lifetimes 1.54 times longer than
simulations with coarse alumina emissions.\\
Alumina emitted only in the South Pacific produces an asymmetrical
radiative forcing.\\
Furthermore, modeling alumina with time-averaged, constant emissions
rather than in discrete reentry plumes in results in 21\% to 24\%
overestimation of alumina's radiative forcing.\\
These results are sensitive to numerous assumptions on initial particle
size, radiative indices and coagulation characteristics of the aerosol.
In-situ observation and a sophisticated understanding of reentry-ablated
alumina particles are necessary to better predict the atmospheric
consequences of reentry-ablated alumina.%
\end{abstract}%



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