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\begin{document}

\title{Nowcasting Solar EUV Irradiance with Photospheric Magnetic Fields and
the Mg II Index}



\author[1]{Kara Kniezewski}%
\author[2]{Samuel Schonfeld}%
\author[2]{Carl John Henney}%
\affil[1]{Air Force Institute of Technology}%
\affil[2]{AFRL}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 20, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}l@{}}
\toprule
A new method to nowcast spectral irradiance in extreme ultraviolet (EUV)
and far ultraviolet (FUV) bands is presented here, utilizing only solar
photospheric magnetograms and the Mg II index (i.e., the core-to-wing
ratio). The EUV and FUV modeling outlined here is a direct extension of
the SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) model, based on Henney et al.
(2015). SIFT estimates solar activity indices using the earth-side solar
photospheric magnetic field sums from global magnetic maps generated by
the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport)
model. Utilizing strong and weak magnetic field sums from ADAPT maps,
Henney et al. (2015) showed that EUV \& FUV observations can also be
well modeled using this technique. However, the original forecasting
method required a recent observation of each SIFT model output to
determine and apply a 0-day offset. The new method described here
expands the SIFT and ADAPT modeling to nowcast the observed Mg II index
with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.982. By correlating the Mg
II model-observation difference with the model-observation difference in
the EUV \& FUV channels, Mg II can be used to apply the 0-day offset
correction yielding improvements in modeling each of the 37 studied EUV
\& FUV bands. With daily global photospheric magnetic maps and Mg II
index observations, this study provides an improved method of nowcasting
EUV \& FUV bands used to drive thermospheric and ionospheric
modeling.\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}%
\end{abstract}%



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