Figure 3 . Model predictions of multiplicative population growth rate of Ortolan Bunting in different regions of the species range in Finland. Model prediction point estimates are shown with black circles together with their 95 % confidence intervals error bars. Violin plots and scattered circles illustrate the distribution of singing group growth rates averaged over time. These averaged data were generated by first adding 0.5 to the territory count, both the current and previous year (TERRI and TERPRE), and then aggregating the data by singing group and counting the average change in population growth rate per singing group. The intensity of the colour of the circle indicates how many times that singing group was visited on consecutive years, i.e., how many observations were available for estimating the growth rate for that singing group (n = 1–13, mean = 2.8).