Figure 4. Plot illustrating the predicted effect of the crop plant type diversity (SHANG), the proportion of farmland surrounding the singing group (AGRI5) and the proportion of bare ground within the singing group’s range (BARE) on the population growth rate of Ortolan Bunting. The black thick line represents the conditional prediction for Uusimaa region, with a 95 % confidence interval around it (grey area), when TERPRE is kept constant at 1. Scattered circles illustrate the distribution of singing group growth rates averaged over time. This averaged data was generated by first adding 0.5 to the territory count, both the current and previous year (TERRI and TERPRE), and then aggregating the data by singing group and counting the average change in population growth rate and the average for each of the three environmental variables. The intensity of the colour of the circle indicates how many times that singing group was visited on consecutive years, i.e., how many observations were available for estimating the growth rate for that singing group (n = 1–13, mean = 2.8).