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\begin{document}

\title{Why moist dynamic processes matter for the sub-seasonal prediction of
atmospheric blocking over Europe}



\author[1]{Jan Lucas Wandel}%
\author[2]{Dominik Büeler}%
\author[3]{Peter Knippertz}%
\author[3]{Julian F. Quinting}%
\author[3]{Christian Michael Grams}%
\affil[1]{Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)}%
\affil[2]{ETH Zürich}%
\affil[3]{Karlsruhe Institute of Technology}%


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  \date{May 28, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models still struggle to
correctly predict and represent atmospheric blocking over the European
region (EuBL). In recent years, there has been growing evidence that
latent heat release in midlatitude weather systems such as warm conveyor
belts (WCBs) contribute significantly to the onset and maintenance of
blocking anticyclones. In this study, we show that for the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's IFS reforecasts in extended
winter (1997--2017) WCB activity around EuBL onsets becomes challenging
to predict in pentad 3 (10--14 days) and beyond. This is in line with
the short overall WCB forecast skill horizon of around 10 days and
partly explains low EuBL skill in NWP models. However, we also show
cases in which accurate WCB and EuBL forecasts are possible even in
pentad 4 (15--19 days). These cases are associated with accurate WCB
forecasts over the North Atlantic and North Pacific pointing towards a
teleconnection between the two. Lastly, we find that WCB activity over
the North Atlantic emerges way before the block is established and
different pathways into EuBL exist in the reforecasts which are
characterised by a westward shift of the main WCB inflow and outflow
region compared to reanalysis. We conclude that despite intrinsic limits
of predictability there is room to improve forecasts of EuBL onset by
improving the representation of WCB activity in NWP models.%
\end{abstract}%



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