5. Conclusions
In this paper, the simulation results have been analysed. The simulations estimated using HYSPLIT modelling system has been carried out for submarine HTHH volcano activity from 14thJanuary to 18th January 2022 (mid-week of January 2022 focusing the multiple eruption events. The investigations specifically based on:
The results from the simulations can be divided into two parts basically with the pre-caldera volcanic activity, i.e., before massive eruption on 15th January 2022. The simulations of 14th January 2022 for volcanic ash particle - deposition, trajectories and particle position can be coined as ‘pre-caldera’ volcanic activity. Generally during ‘pre-caldera’ volcanic activity several more eruptions, including lava flows, ash plumes, and explosive eruptions, may occur during the pre-caldera period of the volcano. The scale of the volcano may grow over time as more material is added to the cone, and the eruption types may vary as the magma chamber underneath the volcano changes.
Investigations for pre-caldera volcanic activity gain a better understanding of the processes that lead up to a big eruption and to try to forecast when a volcanic caldera will form. Seismometers, GPS equipment, gas sensors, and satellite photos usually use to precisely monitor the volcano’s behaviour and follow any changes in activity. The collapse of the top may create a new conduit for magma to reach the surface, resulting in a fresh period of volcanic activity after the construction of a caldera. Furthermore, the collapse may expose new weak points in the volcano’s structure, rendering it more vulnerable to future eruptions. Yet, depending on the exact volcano and the surrounding geology, the specific conditions that contribute to post-caldera volcanic activity might vary greatly.
The HYSPLIT modelling system for HTHH submarine volcanic activity in the mid-week of January 2022 multiple eruptions has been focused to get clearance reports from the simulated results in order to make volcanic ash forecasting results more visualized. Based on the eruption event simulations HYSPLIT modelling system proves that how monitoring system parameters are in operations and how the forecasting analyser works with the HTHH submarine volcanic activity data set for multiple eruptions.
Fig. 8 (figures xi-xv), comprises the volcanic ash particle positions of submarine HTHH volcanic activity before and after massive eruption occurred on 15th January 2022. The volcanic ash particles go <12000 m layer (AGL) on 14thJanuary 2022 simulation result as in Fig. 8. of figure xi, whereas figure xii-xv the post-caldera state starts after the massive eruption on 15th January 2022 the ash particles go >12000 m layer of AGL. The volcanic ash particle trajectories, fig. 8 (figures vi-x) shows the ash particle deposition level in the stratosphere goes >90% even before and after the massive eruption event of 15th January 2022. HYSPLIT outputs have more detailed impression of accuracy that’s why the large uncertainties in the eruption parameters i.e., the volcanic ash particle deposition has shown impact as seen in Fig. 8 (figures i-v) where the ash cloud composite increased by 75% after the massive eruption on 15th January 2022 where the difference can be clearly visible in Fig. 8 (figures i, iii and iv). More than 300,000 volcanic trace particles per day were released during the multiple eruption times of mid-week of January 2022 and can be seen from the simulation results.