5. Conclusions
In this paper, the simulation results have been analysed. The
simulations estimated using HYSPLIT modelling system has been carried
out for submarine HTHH volcano activity from 14thJanuary to 18th January 2022 (mid-week of January 2022
focusing the multiple eruption events. The investigations specifically
based on:
- volcanic ash particle deposition,
- volcanic ash particle trajectories, and
- volcanic ash particle positions.
The results from the simulations can be divided into two parts basically
with the pre-caldera volcanic activity, i.e., before massive eruption on
15th January 2022. The simulations of
14th January 2022 for volcanic ash particle -
deposition, trajectories and particle position can be coined as
‘pre-caldera’ volcanic activity. Generally during ‘pre-caldera’ volcanic
activity several more eruptions, including lava flows, ash plumes, and
explosive eruptions, may occur during the pre-caldera period of the
volcano. The scale of the volcano may grow over time as more material is
added to the cone, and the eruption types may vary as the magma chamber
underneath the volcano changes.
Investigations for pre-caldera volcanic activity gain a better
understanding of the processes that lead up to a big eruption and to try
to forecast when a volcanic caldera will form. Seismometers, GPS
equipment, gas sensors, and satellite photos usually use to precisely
monitor the volcano’s behaviour and follow any changes in activity. The
collapse of the top may create a new conduit for magma to reach the
surface, resulting in a fresh period of volcanic activity after the
construction of a caldera. Furthermore, the collapse may expose new weak
points in the volcano’s structure, rendering it more vulnerable to
future eruptions. Yet, depending on the exact volcano and the
surrounding geology, the specific conditions that contribute to
post-caldera volcanic activity might vary greatly.
The HYSPLIT modelling system for HTHH submarine volcanic activity in the
mid-week of January 2022 multiple eruptions has been focused to get
clearance reports from the simulated results in order to make volcanic
ash forecasting results more visualized. Based on the eruption event
simulations HYSPLIT modelling system proves that how monitoring system
parameters are in operations and how the forecasting analyser works with
the HTHH submarine volcanic activity data set for multiple eruptions.
Fig. 8 (figures xi-xv), comprises the volcanic ash particle positions of
submarine HTHH volcanic activity before and after massive eruption
occurred on 15th January 2022. The volcanic ash
particles go <12000 m layer (AGL) on 14thJanuary 2022 simulation result as in Fig. 8. of figure xi, whereas
figure xii-xv the post-caldera state starts after the massive eruption
on 15th January 2022 the ash particles go
>12000 m layer of AGL. The volcanic ash particle
trajectories, fig. 8 (figures vi-x) shows the ash particle deposition
level in the stratosphere goes >90% even before and after
the massive eruption event of 15th January 2022.
HYSPLIT outputs have more detailed impression of accuracy that’s why the
large uncertainties in the eruption parameters i.e., the volcanic ash
particle deposition has shown impact as seen in Fig. 8 (figures i-v)
where the ash cloud composite increased by 75% after the massive
eruption on 15th January 2022 where the difference can
be clearly visible in Fig. 8 (figures i, iii and iv). More than 300,000
volcanic trace particles per day were released during the multiple
eruption times of mid-week of January 2022 and can be seen from the
simulation results.