The wild tending
framework of medicinal plants constructed based on Biomod2 and PLUS
model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China
Boyan Zhang 1, Bingrui Chen 1, Xinyu
Zhou 1, Hui Zou 1, Detai Duan1, Xiyuan Zhang 1, Xinxin Zhang1
1 Heilongjiang Genuine Wild Medicinal
Materials Germplasm Resources Research Center,
School of Life Sciences and
Technology, Harbin normal
university, Harbin, China
Correspondence
Xinxin Zhang, Heilongjiang Genuine Wild Medicinal Materials Germplasm
Resources Research Center, School of Life Sciences and Technology,
Harbin normal university, Harbin 150025, China. E-mail addresses:
hsdzxx2021@163.com
Abstract
Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine
(TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological
deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild
medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending
areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild
medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense , a known ”plant
antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a
sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three
atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches
(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main
environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinenseand the changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on
the Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the
land use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinensein the future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were
planned using ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the
climate-stable areas of T. chinense in China will mainly be
distributed in humid and subhumid area, and the natural habitat areas ofT. chinense in this region will decrease year by year. Hot spot
analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng, Zunyi, and other counties were
the most suitable for the wild tending of T. chinense . These
results can provide a comprehensive research framework for wild tending
planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.
Keywords: Thesium chinense ; climate change; land use
change; species distribution model; wild tending