The wild tending framework of medicinal plants constructed based on Biomod2 and PLUS model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China
Boyan Zhang 1, Bingrui Chen 1, Xinyu Zhou 1, Hui Zou 1, Detai Duan1, Xiyuan Zhang 1, Xinxin Zhang1
1 Heilongjiang Genuine Wild Medicinal Materials Germplasm Resources Research Center, School of Life Sciences and Technology, Harbin normal university, Harbin, China
Correspondence
Xinxin Zhang, Heilongjiang Genuine Wild Medicinal Materials Germplasm Resources Research Center, School of Life Sciences and Technology, Harbin normal university, Harbin 150025, China. E-mail addresses: hsdzxx2021@163.com
Abstract
Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine (TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense , a known ”plant antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinenseand the changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on the Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the land use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinensein the future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were planned using ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in China will mainly be distributed in humid and subhumid area, and the natural habitat areas ofT. chinense in this region will decrease year by year. Hot spot analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng, Zunyi, and other counties were the most suitable for the wild tending of T. chinense . These results can provide a comprehensive research framework for wild tending planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.
Keywords: Thesium chinense ; climate change; land use change; species distribution model; wild tending