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\begin{document}

\title{Ecology, ethnobotany, and potentially suitable habitat of \emph{Arisaema
costatum} (Wall.) Mart. under the climate change scenarios in Nepal}



\author[1]{Santosh Thapa-Magar}%
\author[2]{Manisha Awasthi}%
\author[3]{Sangram Karki}%
\author[4]{Basu Dev Poudel}%
\author[5]{Ki Wha Chung}%
\affil[1]{Tribhuvan University - Trichandra Multiple Campus}%
\affil[2]{BK21 Center for Field-oriented BioCore Human Resources Development}%
\affil[3]{Nepal Centre for Environmental Research}%
\affil[4]{Environmental Services Nepal}%
\affil[5]{BK21 Center for Field-oriented BioCore Human Resources Development }%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The unique landscape of Nepal supports diverse ecological niches that
are home to valuable plants, benefiting various ethnic groups. Wild
edible plants have been essential for the livelihoods of indigenous
peoples and local communities due to their affordability, ease of
harvest, and renewable nature. However, climate change is altering the
habitat, distribution, ecology, and phenology of plant species in the
Himalayas. One such important species in Nepal is \emph{Arisaema
costatum}, which has multiple indigenous uses. Unfortunately,
deforestation and land use changes have led to continuous changes in the
distribution and habitats of wild edible plants. We conducted field
research involving 280 quadrats (2\selectlanguage{ngerman}×2 meters) and 210 interviews. By
utilizing MaxEnt modeling and considering different climate change
scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) as well as
climatic predictors and species localities, we analyzed 196geospatial
data points. This allowed us to evaluate the present suitable
environment and predict potential habitats in 2050 and 2070. Our
findings revealed that \emph{A. costatum} is used as a vegetable by
indigenous and local communities in the Nepal Himalayas. Traditional
fermentation and detoxification techniques are employed for its
preparation. The plant plays a vital role in household food and
nutrition, income generation, and health security. Elevation, annual
mean temperature (BIO-1), and precipitation during the warmest and
coldest quarters (BIO-18 and BIO-19) were identified as the most
influential factors for projecting the future distribution of \emph{A.
costatum} in the Nepal Himalayas. Approximately 14\% (21121.75 km2) of
Nepal's land was found to be suitable habitat for this species, with the
Gandaki, Bagmati, and Koshi provinces in the temperate regions
particularly well-suited compared to other provinces. Given the
anticipated loss of \emph{A. costatum} habitats and the increasing
temperatures due to climate change in the Nepal Himalayas, urgent
integrated research and development programs are necessary to address
this issue.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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