Species Distribution Modeling (Present–Future)
Our study clearly showed the impact of climate change on the
distribution of non-native H. leucisculus in Iran’s freshwater.
The current maps show the suitable distribution for the species, which
could occur in a wider distribution range especially in some regions out
of the recorded areas (Fig. 4). According to Carosi et al. (2019),
species can experience four scenarios under climate-change effects (i.e.
reduction, expansion, both, or stable) in their habitats. Based on the
output maps of Climate change modelling under SSP scenarios, it will be
predicted that climate change would significantly affect the
distribution of H. leucisculus as it showed a sharp tendency to
expand over time in its distribution areas (Fig. 4). In connection with
our results, Mamun et al. (2018) predicted future climate-change effects
on an invasive alien species Micropterus salmoides in the Korean
peninsula for 2050 and 2100. According to their results, the potentially
suitable habitats for M. salmoides are most likely to increase by
2050 and 2100.
Moreover, the output of the modelling absolutely showed that in areas
with high human population density, the probability of H.
leucisculus distribution in the future is also more. This is due to the
high human activities, trade and travel in these areas.
The expansions of H. leucisculus into upstream and downstream
areas are likely to be the effect of the temperature rise and due to the
warm water of this species. It was expected that climate change would
benefit this species; temperature illustrated the most important role
for model predictions in line with these results, Hong et al. (2022)
with SDM tools applied to explore predicted range shifts in two invasive
alien fish species under future climate-change scenarios. They plainly
presented that range shifts increased under climate-change scenarios and
temperature is the most reason for the expansion of alien fishes.
It is mentioned that with expansions of alien species the vulnerability
of native species will probably be more significant (Hansen et al.,
2017; Abdoli et al., 2022; Kim et al., 2022) and it results in lowering
the species diversity and degrading the sustainability of native fish
species(Jang et al., 2006).