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When Models Talk: Integrated Human-Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling to Assess Delaware River Basin Water Resource Vulnerability to Drought
  • +26
  • Hedeff Essaid,
  • Aubrey Dugger,
  • Jeni Keisman,
  • Nancy Baker,
  • Adam Benthem,
  • Joel Blomquist,
  • Katherine Calvin,
  • Xingyuan Chen,
  • Salme Cook,
  • Galen Gorski,
  • Andrew Hamilton,
  • Liv Herdman,
  • Abigail Jaye,
  • Noah Knowles,
  • P Milly,
  • Diana Pedraza,
  • Jason Pope,
  • Andreas Prein,
  • Patrick Reed,
  • Gregory Rouze,
  • Kevin Sampson,
  • Ward Sanford,
  • Gabriel Senay,
  • Jared Smith,
  • Terry Sohl,
  • Charuleka Varadharajan,
  • Chris Vernon,
  • David Yates,
  • Jacob Zwart
Hedeff Essaid
US Geological Survey, US Geological Survey

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Aubrey Dugger
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Jeni Keisman
U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey
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Nancy Baker
USGS Indiana Water Science Center, USGS Indiana Water Science Center
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Adam Benthem
U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey
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Joel Blomquist
U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey
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Katherine Calvin
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Xingyuan Chen
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Salme Cook
US Geological Survey Woods Hole Science Center, US Geological Survey Woods Hole Science Center
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Galen Gorski
US Geological Survey, US Geological Survey
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Andrew Hamilton
Cornell University, Cornell University
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Liv Herdman
USGS New York Water Science Center, USGS New York Water Science Center
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Abigail Jaye
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Noah Knowles
U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey
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P Milly
USGS Water Mission Area, USGS Water Mission Area
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Diana Pedraza
US Geological Survey, US Geological Survey
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Jason Pope
USGS Virginia Water Science Center, USGS Virginia Water Science Center
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Andreas Prein
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Patrick Reed
Cornell University, Cornell University
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Gregory Rouze
KBR, KBR
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Kevin Sampson
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Ward Sanford
United States Geological Survey (USGS), United States Geological Survey (USGS)
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Gabriel Senay
U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
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Jared Smith
US Geological Survey, US Geological Survey
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Terry Sohl
USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science Center
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Charuleka Varadharajan
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Chris Vernon
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Joint Global Change Research Institute
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David Yates
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Jacob Zwart
US Geological Survey, US Geological Survey
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Abstract

Holistic approaches are needed to investigate the capacity of current water resource operations and infrastructure to sustain water supply and critical ecosystem health under projected drought conditions. Drought vulnerability is complex, dynamic, and challenging to assess, requiring simultaneous consideration of changing water demand, use and management, hydrologic system response, and water quality. We are bringing together a community of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department of Energy, and Cornell University to create an integrated human-hydro-terrestrial modeling framework, linking pre-existing models, that can explore and synthesize system response and vulnerability to drought in the Delaware River Basin (DRB). The DRB provides drinking water to over 15 million people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. Critical water management decisions within the system are coordinated through the Delaware River Basin Commission and must meet requirements set by prior litigation. New York City has rights to divert water from the upper basin for water supply but must manage reservoir releases to meet downstream flow and temperature targets. The Office of the Delaware River Master administers provisions of the Flexible Flow Management Program designed to manage reservoir releases to meet water supply demands, habitat, and specified downstream minimum flows to repel upstream movement of saltwater in the estuary that threatens Philadelphia public water supply and other infrastructure. The DRB weathered a major drought in the 1960s, but water resource managers do not know if current operations and water demands can be sustained during a future drought of comparable magnitude. The integrated human-hydro-terrestrial modeling framework will be used to identify water supply and ecosystem vulnerabilities to drought and will characterize system function and evolution during and after periods of drought stress. Models will be forced with consistent input data sets representing scenarios of past, present, and future conditions. The approaches used to unify and harmonize diverse data sets and open-source models will provide a roadmap for the broader community to replicate and extend to other water resource issues and regions.