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Predicting slowdowns in decadal climate warming trends with explainable neural networks
  • Zachary M. Labe,
  • Elizabeth A. Barnes
Zachary M. Labe
Colorado State University, Colorado State University, Colorado State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Elizabeth A. Barnes
Colorado State University, Colorado State University, Colorado State University
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Abstract

The global mean surface temperature (GMST) record exhibits both interannual to multidecadal variability and a long-term warming trend due to external climate forcing. To explore the predictability of temporary slowdowns in decadal warming, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) to climate model data from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble. Here, an ANN is tasked with whether or not there will be a slowdown in the rate of the GMST trend by using maps of ocean heat content at the onset. Through a machine learning explainability method, we find the ANN is learning off-equatorial patterns of anomalous ocean heat content that resemble transitions in the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in order to make slowdown predictions. Finally, we test our ANN on observed historical data, which further reveals how explainable neural networks are useful tools for understanding decadal variability in both climate models and observations.
16 May 2022Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 49 issue 9. 10.1029/2022GL098173