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\begin{document}

\title{Participatory modelling for analysing interactions between high-priority
Sustainable Development Goals to promote local sustainability}



\author[1]{Reihaneh Bandari}%
\author[2]{Enayat A. Moallemi}%
\author[3]{Katrina Szetey}%
\author[4]{Claire Flanagan-Smith}%
\author[1]{Michalis Hadjikakou}%
\author[3]{Raymundo Marcos Martinez}%
\author[5]{Ali Kharrazi}%
\author[5]{Robert Šakić Trogrlić}%
\author[6]{Brett Anthony Bryan}%
\affil[1]{Deakin University}%
\affil[2]{Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation}%
\affil[3]{CSIRO}%
\affil[4]{RMCG}%
\affil[5]{IIASA}%
\affil[6]{Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)}%


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  \date{June 11, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The 2030 Agenda offers a list of global environmental, social, and
economic objectives to attain sustainable development. However,
achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is challenging given
the complex interactions between different SDGs and their spillover
effects. System dynamics models have the capacity to integrate
multisectoral dynamics of SDG interactions. We developed a system
dynamics model-the Local Environmental and Socio-Economic Model
(LESEM)-to analyse and quantify context-based SDG interactions at the
local scale using a participatory model co-design process with local
stakeholders. The LESEM was developed for a case study in the
Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District in northern Victoria, Australia. We
present an illustrative application of the model that quantifies SDG
interactions across four high-priority SDGs, namely clean water and
sanitation (SDG 6), agricultural activities (SDG 2), economic growth
(SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). Our results suggest that
agricultural land area may shrink by 62,522 ha due to the decline in
water resource availability (SDG 6) under a business-as-usual (BAU)
scenario from 2022 to 2050. However, the results also highlight that
agri-food production (SDG 2) is likely to increase due to
intensification to meet future agri-food demand, and higher values of
farm output may improve local prosperity. The projections also suggest
that environmental pressures may increase due to increasing agricultural
intensification and reduced water availability. The LESEM facilitates
integrated and strategic decision-making and helps local policymakers
identify and quantify potential trade-offs and synergies that benefit
multiple SDGs, which eventually leads local communities toward
sustainability.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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\textbf{Hosted file}

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