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\title{A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the
potential for concurrent and cascading crises}



\author[1,1,1]{· Fabian Prideaux}%
\author[2,2,2]{MARK QUIGLEY}%
\author[2,2,2]{Januka Attanayake}%
\author[2,2,2]{· Andrew King}%
\affil[1]{Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting}%
\affil[2]{University of Melbourne}%


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  \date{May 15, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These
interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A
comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard
time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for
selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and
regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other
responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised,
hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols
with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary
socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering
restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter
COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to
natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation
of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical,
economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard
impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities.
COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event
might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian
responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource
availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple
epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event
predicts a greater infection rate following events during the
pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events,
highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance
of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard
inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence
base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard
scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness
strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems
approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our
recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop
risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the
COVID-19 pandemic.%
\end{abstract}%



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