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\begin{document}

\title{Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content
and Dynamic Sea Level Change.}



\author[1]{Alexander Todd}%
\author[2]{Laure Zanna}%
\author[3]{Matthew Couldrey}%
\author[3]{Jonathan M. Gregory}%
\author[3]{Quran Wu}%
\author[4]{John Alexander Church}%
\author[5]{Riccardo Farneti}%
\author[5]{René Navarro-Labastida}%
\author[6]{Kewei Lyu}%
\author[7]{Oleg A. Saenko}%
\author[7]{Duo Yang}%
\author[8]{Xuebin Zhang}%
\affil[1]{University of Oxford}%
\affil[2]{New York University Courant Institute}%
\affil[3]{University of Reading}%
\affil[4]{Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research}%
\affil[5]{Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics}%
\affil[6]{CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere}%
\affil[7]{Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis}%
\affil[8]{Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
There is large uncertainty in the future sea level change at regional
scales under anthropogenic global warming. This study uses a novel
design of ocean-only general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to
investigate the ocean's response to surface buoyancy and momentum flux
perturbations, as part of the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison
Project (FAFMIP), and compares with results from coupled,
atmosphere-ocean GCM (AOGCM) experiments. Much of the inter-model spread
is driven by the response to surface heat flux perturbations. In a
multi-model ensemble of OGCMs forced with identical surface heat flux
perturbations, regional sea level and ocean heat content changes
demonstrate considerable disagreement, especially in the North Atlantic.
Spread in both residual mean advection and diapycnal diffusion changes
contribute to much of the multi-model disagreement over regional heat
content change. Residual mean advection changes are related to the large
spread in simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)
weakening (20-50\%). We find approximately 10\% more AMOC weakening in
response to surface heat flux perturbations in AOGCMs relative to OGCMs
with consistent ocean models. This enhanced AMOC weakening is driven by
an atmosphere-ocean feedback which amplifies the surface heat flux
perturbation. In the North Pacific, there is little agreement amongst
the ensemble over which processes lead to ocean warming, with varying
contributions from residual mean advection and diapycnal diffusion. For
the Pacific basin, the atmosphere-ocean feedback reduces sea surface
temperature (SST) warming by 0.5\selectlanguage{ngerman}°C. In the Southern Ocean, the
atmosphere-ocean feedback is not generally important for buoyancy and
momentum flux perturbations.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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