Forecast Verification Methods
In atmospheric sciences, forecast verification refers to the process of assessing the quality of forecasts through methods involving comparisons between forecasts and observations \cite{wilks2011statistical,jolliffe2012forecast,murphy1987general,murphy1996finley}. In this subsection, we describe the observations and methods used to quantify the accuracy of the forecasted fire behavior.
Ember showers were mentioned in multiple news sources, including on the OAAR, and also appeared in multiple social media videos; however, firebrands were not directly measured or estimated. Considering that embers were a primary fire spread mechanism in this fire, we verify the simulated fire spread instead. The fire spread is verified against the observed fire perimeter and point observations compiled from recorded footage.