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\begin{document}

\title{Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Reconstruction of the Last Millennium Using
Online Data Assimilation}



\author[1]{Walter Perkins}%
\author[2]{Gregory Hakim}%
\affil[1]{Vulcan}%
\affil[2]{University of Washington}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 13, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
We use online data assimilation to combine information from a linear
inverse model of coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics with proxy records to
create a new annual-resolution reconstruction of atmosphere and ocean
fields over the last millennium. Instrumental validation of
reconstructed sea-surface temperature and 0-700 m ocean heat content
shows broad regions of positive spatial correlations, and high
correlations (\textasciitilde{}0.6-0.9) for global averages and indices
of large-scale modes of atmospheric variability. Compared to previous
reconstructions, the online reconstructions show global and hemispheric
averages with little-to-no millennial-scale trend and global-mean
temperatures \textasciitilde{}0.25-0.5 K cooler during early periods
(1000-1400 C.E.). The spatial anomaly differences of average temperature
between an early (1000-1250 C.E.) and later (1400-1700 C.E.) period show
warm anomalies over high-latitude Europe and cool tropical conditions in
partial agreement with previous assessments. The addition of online data
assimilation, which provides dynamical memory to climate proxy
information, is shown to be crucial for adequately characterizing
decadal-to-centennial-scale variability of 0--700 m ocean heat content.
Furthermore, the climate forecasts provide model-based physical
constraints for atmosphere-ocean interaction, which become increasingly
important during early periods when less proxy information is available
for assimilation.%
\end{abstract}%



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