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\begin{document}

\title{Process oriented diagnostics of monsoon sub-seasonal variability in NCUM
global and regional models}



\author[1]{Mohan Thota}%
\author[2]{Niranjan Kumar Kondapalli}%
\author[3]{Karuna Sagar Sagili}%
\author[3]{Raghavendra Ashrit}%
\affil[1]{National Center for Medium Range weather forecasting}%
\affil[2]{National center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting}%
\affil[3]{National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting}%


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  \date{May 16, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Aim of this study is to assess the fidelity of National Center for
Medium Range Weather Prediction Unified model's (NCUM) global (12km) and
regional (4km) versions in representing the monsoon sub-seasonal
variability over Indian region by applying the process-oriented
diagnostics. Moisture budget analysis is performed on the model's
forecast fields for a typical extended monsoon break event occurred
during July 2019. The exercise is repeated by using the fifth generation
of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and the relative roles of the
budget terms are quantified. We also tested the budget diagnostics onto
the newly generated Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis
(IMDAA) product. The results obtained here are consistent with our
understanding that moisture advection acts a leading term in inducing
the break conditions over central Indian and adjoining oceanic regions.
Specifically, dry air advection from the northwest regions strongly
dries the atmospheric column nearly 7-10 days before and the peak dry
phase over Indian subcontinent. Movement of this dryness, with time,
towards central India and Arabian Sea is consistent with anomalous total
precipitable water content seen from satellite observations. Preliminary
results are encouraging and one of the direct implications of this work
is that the lead times obtained in the moisture budget assessment can be
used for understanding and improvement of the model forecasts.%
\end{abstract}%



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