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\begin{document}

\title{Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water
Supply-Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins}



\author[1]{Hadi Heidari}%
\author[2]{Mazdak Arabi}%
\author[3]{Travis Warziniack}%
\affil[1]{Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University}%
\affil[2]{Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Colorado State University}%
\affil[3]{Rocky Mountain Research Station, U. S. Forest Service}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Climate change, population growth, urbanization, and interactions
thereof may alter the water supply-demand balance and lead to shifts in
water shortage characteristics at different timescales. This study
assesses the vulnerability of water supply systems to the interannual to
the decadal water shortage events across the contiguous United States
(CONUS) by characterizing shifts in intensity, duration, and frequency
(IDF) from current (1986-2015) to future (2070-2099) periods. The water
yield was estimated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model
driven with the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate
model with RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The water demand was projected under the A1B
population growth scenario. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
model was applied to determine water shortage conditions in which water
demand exceeds water supply. Changes in characteristics of shortage
events were assessed using the Mixture Gamma-GPD model. The results
indicate that the frequency and intensity of over-year
(D\textgreater{}12 months) events at the monthly scale and decadal
(D\textgreater{}10 years) events at the annual scale tend to increase in
the Southwest, Southern, middle Great Plain, and Great Lakes.
Conversely, the frequency of interannual (D\textless{}12 months) events
at the monthly scale and annual (D\textgreater{}1 year) and multi-year
(D\textgreater{}3 years) events at the annual scale may increase in the
West Coast. Basins with a higher rate of aridification may experience
more frequent over-year events while basins with a decrease in
aridification may undergo more frequent interannual events due to an
increase in the variability of extreme weather anomalies within a year
under climate change.%
\end{abstract}%



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