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\begin{document}

\title{Drivers and reversibility of abrupt ocean state transitions in the
Amundsen Sea, Antarctica}



\author[1]{Justine Caillet}%
\author[1]{Nicolas C Jourdain}%
\author[1]{Pierre Mathiot}%
\author[2]{Hartmut H Hellmer}%
\author[1]{Jérémie Mouginot}%
\affil[1]{Univ. Grenoble Alpes}%
\affil[2]{Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 15, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Ocean warming around Antarctica has the potential to trigger marine
ice-sheet instabilities. It has been suggested that abrupt and
irreversible cold-to-warm ocean tipping points may exist, with possible
domino effect from ocean to ice-sheet tipping points. A 1/4\selectlanguage{ngerman}° ocean model
configuration of the Amundsen Sea sector is used to investigate the
existence of ocean tipping points, their drivers, and their potential
impact on ice-shelf basal melting. We apply idealized atmospheric
perturbations of either heat, freshwater or momentum fluxes, and we
characterize the key physical processes at play in warm-to-cold and
cold-to-warm climate transitions. Relatively weak perturbations of any
of these fluxes are able to switch the Amundsen Sea to an intermittent
or permanent cold state, i.e., with ocean temperatures close to the
surface freezing point and very low ice-shelf melt rate. The transitions
are reversible, i.e., cancelling the atmospheric perturbation brings the
ocean system back to its unperturbed state within a few decades. All the
transitions are primarily driven by changes in surface buoyancy fluxes
over the continental shelf, as a direct consequence of the freshwater
flux perturbation, or through changes in net sea-ice production
resulting from either heat flux perturbations or from changes in sea-ice
advection for the momentum flux perturbation. These changes affect the
vertical ocean stratification and thereby ice-shelf basal melting. For
warmer climate conditions than presently, the surface buoyancy forcing
becomes less important as there is a decoupling between the surface and
subsurface layers, and ice-shelf melt rates appear less sensitive to
climate conditions.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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