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\begin{document}

\title{Adaptation strategies strongly reduce the future impacts of climate
change on crop yields}



\author[1]{Rose Z Abramoff}%
\author[2]{Philippe Ciais}%
\author[3]{Peng Zhu}%
\author[4]{Toshihiro Hasegawa}%
\author[4]{Hitomi Wakatsuki}%
\author[5]{David Makowski}%
\affil[1]{Oak Ridge National Laboratory}%
\affil[2]{Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE)}%
\affil[3]{LSCE}%
\affil[4]{National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences}%
\affil[5]{2.	Université Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Unit Applied mathematics and computer science}%


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  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between
models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation
affects yield change, we developed a meta-model based on 8703 site-level
process-model simulations of yield with contrasting future adaptation
strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We
tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to
relate the percentage change in future yield relative to the baseline
period (2000-2010) to explanatory variables related to adaptation
strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global
maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most
influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive
explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential
factor determining the yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without
adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average
global yield losses of 6--21\%. Adaptation alleviates this average loss
by 1--13\%. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a mean
yield loss of -21 \% {[}range across locations: -63\%, +3.7\%{]} without
adaptation and -7.5\% {[}range: -46\%, +13\%{]} with adaptation. For
maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the
adaptation types most able to prevent large yield losses, respectively.
When adaptation practices are applied, some areas may experience yield
gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the
critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to
mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.%
\end{abstract}%



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