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\begin{document}

\title{Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and
Climate Sensitivity}



\author[1,1,1]{Chris Smith}%
\author[2,2,2]{Glen Harris}%
\author[2,2,2]{Matthew Palmer}%
\author[3,3,3]{Nicolas Bellouin}%
\author[4,4,4]{Gunnar Myhre}%
\author[5,5,5]{Michael Schulz}%
\author[6,6,6]{Jean-Christophe Golaz}%
\author[2,2,2]{Mark Ringer}%
\author[7,7,7]{Trude Storelvmo}%
\author[1,1,1]{Piers Forster}%
\author[8,8]{William Collins}%
\affil[1]{University of Leeds}%
\affil[2]{Met Office Hadley Centre}%
\affil[3]{University of Reading}%
\affil[4]{CICERO}%
\affil[5]{Norwegian Meteorological Institute}%
\affil[6]{Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory}%
\affil[7]{University of Oslo}%
\affil[8]{University of Reading,University of Reading Department of Meteorology}%


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  \date{May 22, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
An observationally-constrained time series of historical aerosol
effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this
paper. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6
models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history
of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of
present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate
sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6
climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and
ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol
forcing. We find 2005-2014 mean aerosol ERF to be -1.1 (-1.8 to -0.5) W
m-2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions
from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions
from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is -0.9 (-1.5 to -0.4) W m-2. There
is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m-2 decade-1) between
1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5-95\% range of equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) of 1.8-5.1C (best estimate 3.1C) with a
transient climate response (TCR) of 1.2-2.6C (best estimate 1.8C).%
\end{abstract}%



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