loading page

Quantifying aviation's contribution to global warming
  • +3
  • Milan Klöwer,
  • Myles Allen,
  • David Lee,
  • Simon Proud,
  • Leo Gallagher,
  • Agnieszka Skowron
Milan Klöwer
University of Oxford

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Myles Allen
University of Oxford
Author Profile
David Lee
Manchester Metropolitan University
Author Profile
Simon Proud
University of Oxford
Author Profile
Leo Gallagher
University of Oxford
Author Profile
Agnieszka Skowron
Manchester Metropolitan University
Author Profile

Abstract

Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because of the mix of climate pollutants it generates: aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO 2. Aviation is projected to have caused a total of about 0.1˚C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next three decades. Should aviation’s pre-COVID growth resume, the industry will contribute a 6-17% share to the remaining 0.3-0.8˚C to not exceed 1.5-2˚C of global warming. Under this scenario, the reduction due to COVID-19 to date is small and is projected to only delay aviation’s warming contribution by about 5 years. But the leveraging impact of growth also represents an opportunity: Aviation’s contribution to further warming would be immediately halted by either a sustained annual 2.5% decrease in flights under the existing fuel mix, or a transition to a 90% carbon-neutral fuel mix by 2050.
01 Oct 2021Published in Environmental Research Letters volume 16 issue 10 on pages 104027. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e