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\begin{document}

\title{The Effects of Anthropogenic and Volcanic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases
on 20th Century Sahel Precipitation}



\author[1]{Rebecca Herman}%
\author[2]{Michela Biasutti}%
\author[3]{Alessandra Giannini}%
\author[4]{Yochanan Kushnir}%
\affil[1]{Columbia University}%
\affil[2]{Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University}%
\affil[3]{Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique,Earth Institute, Columbia University}%
\affil[4]{Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external
climate forcings---including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols,
and greenhouse gases (GHG)---relative to each other and to internal
variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this
query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate
Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ``20th century'' and
pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of
single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of
anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel
rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts
for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test
shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual
observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in
simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal
variability, or both.%
\end{abstract}%



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