2.4. Flood Probability Analysis
Statistical analysis is performed on the generated storm tides for locations/stations at 1000-m intervals along the Shanghai coast. The probability of storm tide events can be estimated by extreme value models such as generalized extreme value distribution family. In this study, the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is applied to describe the limiting behavior of maximum storm tide values for all individual events using a Peaks-Over-Threshold approach (Simiu and Heckert 1996) and the maximum likelihood method (Lin et al., 2012). The GPD threshold is determined by trial to ensure that the smallest error in the distribution is obtained (Marsooli et al., 2019). Then, the return periods of peak storm time levels are calculated by assuming that the storm arrival for the region is a stationary Poisson process (Lin et al., 2012).