Hazard assessment for typhoon-induced coastal flooding and
inundation in Shanghai, China
Jie Yin1,2,3, Ning Lin2*, Yuhan
Yang1, William J. Pringle4, Joannes
J. Westerink4, Dapeng Yu5
1 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, China
2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton
University, USA
3 Institute of Eco-Chongming, East China Normal University, China
4 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences,
University of Notre Dame, IN, USA
5 Department of Geography, Loughborough University, UK
* Correspondence to: N.L. (email:
nlin@princeton.edu)
Abstract: This paper describes an integrated
statistical-hydrodynamic method to estimate tropical cyclone-induced
coastal flood inundation hazard, applied to a coastal megacity-Shanghai,
China. We identify three “worst-case” scenarios (extracted from over
5000 synthetic storms) that generate unprecedentedly high flood levels
in Shanghai. Nevertheless, we find that the mainland Shanghai is
relatively safe from coastal flooding under the current climate, thanks
to its high-standard seawall protection. However, the city is expected
to be increasingly at risk due to future sea level rise, with inundation
two times and 20 times more likely to occur by mid- and
late-21st century, respectively, and inundation depth
and area to greatly increase (e.g., 60-1360% increase in the inundation
area for the “worst cases” by 2100). The low-lying and
poorly-protected area (e.g. Chongming island) is likely to be moderately
affected by flood events with long return periods at the current state
but could be largely inundated in future sea-level-rise situations.