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\begin{document}

\title{A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners}



\author[1]{Roderik S. W. van de Wal}%
\author[2]{Robert James Nicholls}%
\author[3]{David Behar}%
\author[4]{Kathleen Lynne Mcinnes}%
\author[5]{Detlef Stammer}%
\author[6]{Jason A. Lowe}%
\author[7]{John Alexander Church}%
\author[8]{Robert M. DeConto}%
\author[9]{Xavier Fettweis}%
\author[10]{Heiko Goelzer}%
\author[11]{Marjolijn Haasnoot}%
\author[12]{Ivan David Haigh}%
\author[13]{Jochen Hinkel}%
\author[14]{Benjamin P Horton}%
\author[15]{T S James}%
\author[16]{Adrian Jenkins}%
\author[17]{Gonéri Le Cozannet}%
\author[18]{Anders Levermann}%
\author[19]{William H. Lipscomb}%
\author[20]{Ben Marzeion}%
\author[21]{Frank Pattyn}%
\author[22]{Antony J Payne}%
\author[23]{W. Tad Pfeffer}%
\author[24]{Stephen Price}%
\author[25]{Helene Seroussi}%
\author[26]{S Sun}%
\author[27]{W Veatch}%
\author[28]{Kathleen White}%
\affil[1]{Utrecht University}%
\affil[2]{University of East Anglia}%
\affil[3]{San Francisco Public Utilities Commission}%
\affil[4]{Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)}%
\affil[5]{University Hamburg, Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN)}%
\affil[6]{Met Office}%
\affil[7]{Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research}%
\affil[8]{University of Massachusetts Amherst}%
\affil[9]{University of Liège}%
\affil[10]{NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway}%
\affil[11]{Deltares}%
\affil[12]{University of Southampton}%
\affil[13]{Global Climate Forum}%
\affil[14]{NTU}%
\affil[15]{19Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada}%
\affil[16]{BAS}%
\affil[17]{BRGM}%
\affil[18]{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research}%
\affil[19]{National Center for Atmospheric Research}%
\affil[20]{University of Bremen}%
\affil[21]{Université Libre de Bruxelles}%
\affil[22]{University of Bristol}%
\affil[23]{University of Colorado Boulder}%
\affil[24]{Los Alamos National Laboratory (DOE)}%
\affil[25]{Dartmouth College}%
\affil[26]{Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University}%
\affil[27]{US Army Corps of Engineers}%
\affil[28]{United States Army Corps of Engineers}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Sea-level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change
because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to
equilibrate. SLR projections based on climate models support policy
analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their
large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is
estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners
often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in
the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing
models. Here, a community effort combining scientist and practitioners,
builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify
high-end global SLR for practice. The approach is complementary to the
IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end
scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are
developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global
warming of +2 @\selectlanguage{english}C in 2100 (SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values
our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in
2300. Similarly, for +5 @\selectlanguage{english}C (SSP5-8.5) we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100
and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the
scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation.
However, even a modest 2 @\selectlanguage{english}C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on
centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas.
Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in
Antarctica, while we emphasize the timing of ice-shelf collapse around
Antarctica, which is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the
driving processes.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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\textbf{Hosted file}

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