Fig. 12. Return years in the 2040s and the 2090s: (a), (b) SSP1-2.6.
(c), (d) SSP2-4.5. (e), (f) SSP5-8.5. Dotted areas represent areas with
return years from 0 to 1 years, and slashed areas represent areas with
return years from 1 to 2 years.
Fig. 13 summarizes the increase in the frequency and intensity of
extreme heat events considering the average values over the land area of
the PRD. In the 2040s, an original 10-year extreme heat event will
become a 4-, 4.7-, and 2.7-year event in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and
SSP5-8.5, respectively, although the increase in intensity will be
similar in all three scenarios. However, by the end of the century, the
differences in both the frequency and intensity increases between the
intermediate pathway (SSP2-4.5) and fossil-fueled pathway (SSP5-8.5)
will become substantial. Specifically, for SSP5-8.5, the return period
will decrease from 10 years in the 2010s to once in each month from June
to September in the 2090s.