Extreme precipitation events from the western disturbances have
significant impacts on the water management and ecosystem services in
the Upper Indus basin, a part of the Hindukush Himalayan region.
Further, there are changes in the duration, intensity, spatial extent
and frequency of extreme events due to climate change. In this domain, a
few studies have assessed the impact of climate change in the study area
with limited data. There will be high uncertainty in the outcomes
obtained from the investigation of extreme events with limited data.
Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of extreme precipitation events from
western disturbances considering high resolution with long-term data is
required in the study area. Accordingly, In the present study,
Precipitation based ETCCDI Indices are calculated for every year, and
non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is applied Sen slope is calculated to
detect the changes in the monthly precipitation during the winter season
for the period 1901-2019. The findings of the present study reveal the
northwest region has an increasing trend in RX1day extreme precipitation
of 1.85 mm per decade in December, and the rate has amplified due to the
effect of western disturbances in January and February. Also, the
pattern of RX5day extreme precipitation is consistent in January and
February. Overall the wetness in increasing over the north-west part of
the study area In recent decades, the northwest region of the upper
Indus basin had faced more extreme events with severe impacts due to
western disturbances, and outcomes from the study can improve the
understanding of extreme events.