Predicting parasite range expansion
Using computed monthly mean temperatures extracted from global climate
projections (2021-2040) and our field data collected from 2014-2015, we
compared the EIP for avian as well as the human malaria parasites across
the four Himalayan sites (Figure 5). The main point was that for
virtually all parasites, climate change scenarios lead to an expansion
of the transmission period in which parasite survival is guaranteed as
well as the lower EIP. The only exception was the low elevation site,
Mandal (1800m) where a decrease in average temperature is predicted
leading to an increase in EIP. The effects of climate change are known
to be inhomogeneous, in general, even as there is a secular increase in
overall mean temperatures. This counterexample to the general trend
supports that observation.